Perry’s Memorial Tournament Betting Guide: Fade 5-Time Champ Tiger Woods, Favorites?
Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Tiger Woods
- Joshua Perry reveals his betting card for the 2019 Memorial Tournament, featuring analysis on five-time champ Tiger Woods and other favorites.
Not much went well at Colonial last week. Fading the big names went well, but we were nowhere near Kevin Na.
Now we’ll move on to another familiar track at Muirfield Village Golf Club for the Memorial Tournament, where the favorites haven’t fared well in recent years. Each of the past five winners was at least +6000 heading into the event.
Muirfield Village comes in at 7,392 yards as a par 72. Water and rough are the main defenses for this course. Water is in play on about half the holes, while the rough is usually deep enough to make the bomb and gouge strategy less effective.
Recent winners include Bryson Dechambeau, Jason Dufner, Hideki Matsuyama and Matt Kuchar. All are solid tee to green and have the ability to do so without hitting the driver 320 yards.
With Jack Nicklaus playing host, the tournament usually draws a strong field, and this year is no exception.
Rory McIlroy opens up as the favorite at +900 with five-time champ Tiger Woods next in line at +1200. Jordan Spieth and Justin Rose are right behind at +1600. The only other player under +2000 in Justin Thomas (+1800), who is making his first start since the Masters while recovering from a wrist injury.
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At the top are Rose and Patrick Cantlay at +2000, both of whom are of the most interest for me.
Still, I’m steering clear of this range again.
As mentioned earlier, the course hasn’t been a spot where favorites have come out on top in recent years. And with Rose struggling a little the past couple weeks, it’s tough to back him with the number so low.
Cantlay is in great form, but the number has crashed to the point where it’s tough to back him to win. He has just one victory in his career to this point, and even though he can take this down, I’m just not back a guy at +2000 unless they have more of a track record.
We’ll start with middle range and take a few guys.
First up is Gary Woodland at +3775.
Woodland owns a couple top 10s here and is coming off an eighth-place finish at the PGA Championship two weeks ago. The form has been solid all year, and this is course should suit him well.
We’ll also back Rory Sabbatini at +6950. Sabbatini is in a great run of form with three top 10s in four starts. He was also second here in 2012, so he’s shown the ability to compete on this course.
Next is Emiliano Grillo at +7050. I like Grillo when we get back on bentgrass putting greens like the ones at Muirfield. He loses stokes on both Poa and Bermuda, but bent has been the places he’s done the best in his career.
I’ll also back a couple a ball strikers who really struggle with the putter: Keegan Bradley and Kyle Stanley.
Stanley is available at +8050 and has three top-six finishes in his career. It’s one of the places he’s been the most consistent. Bradley is +9885 and has been in the top 10 a couple of times here before.
I don’t mind back weak putters here, because of the premium placed on ball striking here. We mentioned recent winners like Dufner, DeChambeau and Matsuyama, who all have their struggles on the greens.
We don’t have to look back too far to find players who come out of nowhere to win this title. William McGirt and David Lingmerth went back-to-back in the longshot column at 200-1 and 400-1 in 2016 and 2015, respectively.
We’ll take a crack with Harold Varner III at 200-1 here.
Varner played well enough two weeks ago to be in the finals pairing at a major. Obviously that day didn’t go well for him, but overall the game should be in solid shape to reach that point.
He’s also made both his cuts here with a top 20 in 2017, so he’s done alright on this course.
The Memorial Tournament Card
- Gary Woodland +3775 (.88 units)
- Rory Sabbatini +6950 (.48 units)
- Emiliano Grillo +7050 (.47 units)
- Kyle Stanley +8050 (.41 units)
- Keegan Bradley +9885 (.33 units)
- Harold Varner III +20000 (.17 units)
Total Stake: 2.74 units