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Perry’s Guide to Betting the U.S. Open Mid-Tier: 2 Values Stand Out

Perry’s Guide to Betting the U.S. Open Mid-Tier: 2 Values Stand Out article feature image

USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Jason Day

The middle of the board is where the value lies for most golf tournaments.

But the majors haven’t played out that way so far though with Tiger Woods and Brooks Koepka winning as basically the favorites heading into the week.

We have had a couple U.S. Open winners come from this midtier in recent years, including Koepka in 2017 and Martin Kaymer in 2014. Both were available at +4000.

The Course

Pebble Beach will check in at a relatively short 7,075 yards for a par 71. The fairways will be tighter and the rough will be thicker than the during the regular tour stop, but it will test the same parts of each player’s game.

The players will need to be completely dialed in with their irons and they will need to be good scramblers and have confidence on the poa annua greens.

Even the best ball-strikers will miss their fair share of greens this week so the ability to minimize damage will be incredibly important.

Since this is a shorter course, bombing it off the tee isn’t a requirement at Pebble Beach. Length will be helpful as it will allow players to club down a bit off the tee on some holes, making it more likely that they’ll keep the ball on the fairway which gives them a better chance of hitting the green.

Perry’s Favorite Mid-Tier U.S. Open Bets

In this range, I’ll be starting with Jason Day at +3500. Pebble Beach form matters to some extent this week and Day has been consistent each year, finishing in the top 11 each of the last five years with four top 5s.

He doesn’t have a win yet, but he’s shown the ability to contend. His weakness is usually with the approach, but he’s a great scrambler and putter.

My other play in this range is Tony Finau. I have him at +6600 from a few months ago, but that’s dipped a bit to +5000. I’m not as confident it as I was back then and I don’t know if I’d add him here at the current number.

But he’s great tee to green and his putter tends to be around field average on poa greens, which could be enough if he’s able to the the driver in play this week.

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