Best Head-to-Head Golf Props: Believe in Ryan Moore’s Recent Form?

Best Head-to-Head Golf Props: Believe in Ryan Moore’s Recent Form? article feature image
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Reinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports

The Valero Texas Open gets underway on Thursday, and while we dove deep into the course, players, stats, and more to improve your chances your chances of picking a winner, we know longshot futures aren’t for everyone. So let’s use our FantasyLabs metrics to find a few head-to-head prop bets that stand out the most:

  • Keith Mitchell vs. Grayson Murray
  • Ryan Moore vs. Kevin Chappell
  • Charley Hoffman vs. Matt Kuchar

 

All odds taken from 5Dimes as of 12 p.m. ET Wednesday. 

Keith Mitchell (-120) over Grayson Murray

Murray is a decent fit for this course with his Long-Term Driving Distance (LT DD) of 306.6 yards, but his ball-striking is lacking. He has hit just 62.7% of GIR in the past 75 weeks and 64.2% of GIR in his past four tournaments. Meanwhile, Mitchell is on fire right now: Sporting a field-best 317.3-yard LT DD while hitting 70.4% of GIR over his past four tournaments. Not only is Mitchell hitting GIR, but he has been able to capitalize on the scorecard with a 68.8 Recent Adjusted Round Score.

Ryan Moore (-105) over Kevin Chappell

Chappell is the defending champion at TPC San Antonio and finished fourth here in 2016. However, he’s coming off two missed cuts (70.0 Recent Adjusted Round Score). I’m starting to wonder if Chappell’s back issues from earlier in the season are still lingering. Meanwhile, Moore (pictured above) has excellent recent form with a 68.7 Recent Adjusted Round Score. He doesn’t have the distance (LT DD of 285.7) that Chappel does, but that hasn’t stopped him from gaining strokes on par-5s. Over the past 75 weeks, Moore is still averaging -4.2 average adjusted strokes on par-5s, which is just below Chappell’s -4.4 mark.

Charley Hoffman (-110) over Matt Kuchar 

Hoffman opened as a slight dog against Kuchar, but he has since moved to a pick’em, suggesting money is coming in on Hoffman. Kuchar isn’t a terrible fit for this course, but he lacks distance off the tee (285.4-yard LT DD), giving Hoffman an advantage to go along with his absurd course history: