A lot of the drama went out of the Hero World Challenge on Saturday.
Tiger Woods struggled for the first time, shooting a 3-over 75 in windy conditions. Meanwhile, Charley Hoffman is close to locking up the title after matching the low round of the day with a 2-under 70. Hoffman opened up a five-shot lead over Jordan Spieth and Justin Rose and now sits at -175 to come out with the victory.
Hoffman hasn’t won in about 18 months, and he’s struggled at times in the lead, so it might be worth looking into a field bet in the +135 to +145 range. If you’re looking for one guy to track him down, I’d probably head back to the well with Rose at +600. You’d need Hoffman to slide a bit or get a really low round from someone, and as mentioned Friday, Rose owns the course record at Albany.
After impressive golf the first two days, Tiger shows there *is* some rust in his game. Hoffman leads by 5.
— Golf Channel (@GolfChannel) December 2, 2017
Looking at the matchups, Tiger Woods is +135 against Justin Thomas. It’s a tough one to cap because I’m not sure where Thomas’ motivation level is, while Woods may be feeling a little fatigue. I’d lean Woods only because if things go south for both players, Tiger would be more inclined to grind out a round, while Thomas really doesn’t have much to play for.
Another play I’d look at is a Rose/Spieth parlay at +130. I’d expect Rose to beat Hoffman in the head to head even if it’s not enough to actually win the tournament. Spieth is close enough to Hoffman that he’ll try to shoot something low and steal this away, so I think he’ll be able to hold off Francesco Molinari in that pairing.
Joshua has spent the last five years writing about sports and the last 10 years betting them, mostly on golf. He’s one of approximately five people who will watch the PGA over the NFL in November. Follow him on Twitter @JoshuaPerry22
Photo: © Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports
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