Sanderson Farms: Looking for a longshot
If there’s anywhere on tour that lends itself to hitting a winner at a massive number, it’s the Sanderson Farms Championship.
The three previous winners, Cody Gribble (80-1), Peter Malnati (140-1) and Nick Taylor (250-1), all came from well off the radar to claim victory.
This is a tournament where it feels like just about anyone in the field can win. I believe the reason for that is this course doesn’t test a player from tee to green the way most places do.
Cody Gribble made it three straight first-time winners at @Sanderson_Champ last year.
Will we see another breakthrough in Jackson? pic.twitter.com/lB7pzGfTJ6
— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) October 24, 2017
The fairways are hard to hit, but players are still able to find a lot of greens from rough. So poor drivers aren’t penalized at the same rate. Then the greens are among the easiest on tour to hit in regulation. The average player will hit about 70 percent during the week. To put that into perspective, only four players hit 70 percent of their greens in regulation for the 2017 season. This gives the lesser ball strikers a chance to ride their strongest club, the putter, and get into contention.
It’s also a course where rookies have broken through. Gribble, Malnati and Taylor were all fresh off the Web.com Tour when they won. So looking at recent graduates is a good place to start.
I’ve got a few players from that group, starting with Talor Gooch (90-1) and Adam Schenk (125-1). I have both of those players rated fairly high based on their Web seasons, and I’ll target them throughout the PGA Tour year anytime I’m getting triple digits. Ben Silverman (100-1) is another recent Web grad I rated highly after a hot finish in the summer.
— Web.com Tour (@WebDotComTour) October 11, 2017
I’m also backing two of the hotter prospects off the Web Tour here as well. Aaron Wise (100-1) and Beau Hossler (150-1) made their impacts in college at Oregon and Texas, then quickly made their way through the Web season in their first crack this past year. Now they’ll have a chance to continue their ascent in the game, and they’re being offered at triple digits on a course where the rookies have played well.
I’m also looking at Tour vet Brian Gay (140-1). He’s the type of guy who will struggle to keep up with the bombers and elite iron players, but on a course where a putter can get rolling, he’ll should fit right in.
Full Card (units)
Brice Garnett 50-1 (.7)
Talor Gooch 90-1 (.4)
Aaron Wise 100-1 (.35)
Ben Silverman 100-1 (.35)
Adam Schenk 125-1 (.3)
Brian Gay 140-1 (.25)
Ryan Blaum 140-1 (.25)
Beau Hossler 150-1 (.25)
Top 5s on all except Blaum and Silverman
Brandon Hagy +450 (1)
Silverman +900 (1)
Blaum +1250 (1)
Joshua has spent the last five years writing about sports and the last 10 years betting them, mostly on golf. He’s one of approximately five people who will watch the PGA over the NFL in November. Follow him on Twitter @JoshuaPerry22
Photo: © Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports