AT&T Pebble Peach Pro-Am Round 2 Odds & Picks: How to Bet Dustin Johnson vs. Jordan Spieth

Not all things have a way of evening out, but the scoring did on the Monterey Peninsula during Thursday’s opening round of the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am – well, almost.

These were the first-round scoring averages from each of the three courses in last year’s edition of the event:

Spyglass Hill: 72.000

Pebble Beach: 71.404

Monterey Peninsula CC: 68.904

As if to only accentuate the glaring differentiate, both of the two co-leaders and each of the players one shot back after last year’s opener all played the easier MPCC track.

By comparison, these were the scoring averages at each course on Thursday this week:

Pebble Beach: 71.942

Spyglass Hill: 71.923

Monterey Peninsula CC: 70.713

There are three stark takeaways from these results.

The first is that, even though the numbers were negligible, Pebble and Spyglass switched places, as the Sunday host venue played to a scoring average just a smidge higher this time around. It might not mean much, but it’s a potentially valuable piece of information to keep in mind while live betting the next two rounds.

The second is that while MPCC was still notably easier, it played nearly two full strokes tougher than it did in the opening frame last year. In my pre-tournament preview, I suggested that all FRL bets should be focused on players competing there and while Nick Taylor did prove me right, the early leaderboard hardly mirrors that of last year, with only four of the top-11 having played there. Again, that’s another important piece of information if we were banking on MPCC being a pushover for a few more days.

All of which leads to the third takeaway: Whereas last year’s early stats would’ve had me pushing live outrights for any player(s) who’d tamed Spyglass or Pebble and still had MPCC left in their rotation, Thursday’s variance has me taking a more cautious approach.

Patrick Cantlay (+350) has moved from second-favorite into the top spot after a 6-under 66 at Spyglass, while Dustin Johnson (+800) traded places with him following a 69 on the same course, but having MPCC on the schedule Friday shouldn’t have us as excited as we would’ve been after seeing last year’s early scoring averages.

Instead, I’ll remain neutral on outrights for at least another day and see how the second round shakes out.

Round 2 Matchup Pick

Jordan Spieth (+169) over Dustin Johnson

12:06 p.m. ET

No, I’m not backtracking from my pre-tourney assessment that I have no idea what’s wrong with Spieth’s game, why he’s not playing the way he’s capable of, and when he’ll turn it all around.

In the opening round, DJ posted that aforementioned 69 at Spyglass to Spieth’s 70, a relatively clean round which included just a pair of bogeys.

Don’t be surprised if, at some point this week, a little jetlag starts to kick in for Johnson, who finished in second place last week in Saudi Arabia, 11 time zones away from the Monterey Peninsula.

By contrast, don’t be surprised if something good kicks in for Spieth – on Friday, at least.

In his last three competitive rounds on MPCC, Spieth has posted rounds of 66-66-68. As mentioned above, the course is playing a bit tougher this week, but that shouldn’t ruin any good vibes he owns on this track.

At plus-money, and knowing Spieth likes the low-key vibe of this event, I’ll take a chance on him in this one.

Pick: Spieth +169