Perry: Should You Bet Tiger Woods to Win the Tour Championship?

Perry: Should You Bet Tiger Woods to Win the Tour Championship? article feature image
Credit:

Credit: Mark Konezny-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Tiger Woods studies a putt on the 15th hole during the final round of the Dell Technologies Championship golf tournament at TPC of Boston.

  • Tiger Woods (-200) is the favorite to win the Tour Championship entering Sunday.
  • Tiger has closed out all 23 tournaments he's led by at least three strokes through 54 holes.
  • Justin Rose (+400) and Rory McIlroy (+400) present a legitimate challenge for Tiger the final round.

Twenty-three wins, zero losses. 

That’s Tiger Woods’ record when he’s led by three or more strokes after 54 holes.

Historically, this has been game over for the rest of the field.

Tiger is -200 to close this tournament out. Is there any value in that number?

A couple of things give me a moment of pause.

First, it’s been years since Tiger has been in this spot. The old Tiger closes this thing without a sweat.

But does this new version of Woods have that same killer instinct? We’re about to find out.

Second, it’s not just anyone chasing him in the final round on Sunday.

Justin Rose and Rory McIlroy are both three back of the lead at +400 odds. Rose is the newly minted No. 1 player in the world and McIlroy is capable of firing a 65 without batting an eye.

And just beyond those two is Jon Rahm tied for fourth place and priced at +5000. Basically, Woods will have to fend off two or three super elite players to take home the title.

East Lake is a difficult course and if things aren’t clicking perfectly, it’s easy to shoot over par. Need some proof? Brooks Koepka is 4-over after three days; Rickie Fowler shot 73 on Saturday.

Even the normally consistent Patrick Cantlay carded a 76 in the third round for the worst round on the course after sitting at 4-under par through two rounds.

Tiger is probably going to win.

He has every other time in this spot. But there are pot holes everywhere around this track and -200 may not be the lay-up it appears.

In the blink of an eye, Rose went from tied with Woods to five down after seven holes. Tiger will have to be on his game or he could see a reversal of fortune against either Rory or Rose.