MLS Betting Odds, Picks, Preview, Projections: Our 3 Best Bets, Including Chicago Fire vs. Inter Miami (Saturday, Sept. 10)
Emilee Chinn/Getty Images. Pictured: Nashville SC standout Hany Mukhtar.
Playoff lives will be on the line Saturday when Major League Soccer takes center stage with a huge Saturday slate.
The Los Angeles Galaxy try to keep their hopes of a Western Conference playoff berth alive when they visit blistering Nashville. In other action, Philadelphia looks to move closer to the top playoff seed in the Eastern Conference when Orlando City comes to visit.
And Inter Miami is also fighting for its postseason livelihood when it hits the road for a match against Chicago.
So, here are our three best bets of the busy card.
Our 3 MLS Best Bets
Nashville vs. LA Galaxy
| Nashville Odds | -117 |
| LA Galaxy Odds | +295 |
| Draw | +275 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-150 / +120) |
| Day | Time | Saturday | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| How To Watch | fuboTV |
| Odds via Caesars. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here. | |
Nashville has won its last four matches. Los Angeles is unbeaten in five outings.
However, Nashville is playing like a team that's for real. A close view of the Galaxy reveals a paper tiger in my opinion.
Take a look at the quality of opponent of late. Two of the Coyotes' wins came against teams nearly certain to reach the postseason. None of the Galaxy's last five foes begin the weekend in the playoff places.
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Or take a look at the xG or non-penalty xG totals, which are heavily in Nashville's favor over the last seven games for each side.
So to reiterate, this is a game between a team finding its best form and another benefiting from a soft spot on the schedule.
Take the former on the moneyline, even if the -117 odds imply a 53.9% probability several ticks higher than the MLS-average 47% home win rate.
By The Numbers
- +6.2 — Nashville's non-penalty xGDiff over its last seven games.
- -4.0 — Los Angeles' non-penalty xGDiff over its last seven matches.
Quillen's Pick: Nashville ML (-117)
Philadelphia vs. Orlando City
| Philadelphia Odds | -190 |
| Orlando Odds | +475 |
| Draw | +310 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-155 / +110) |
| Day | Time | Saturday | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| How To Watch | ESPN+ |
| Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here. | |
Philadelphia is a heavy favorite against a fellow playoff contender. And when you take a look at their blistering form, you can understand why.
However, even 72 hours removed from winning the U.S. Open Cup on home soil, Orlando City shouldn't be completely written off.
The Lions are more than willing to play a low block that can be frustrating for the high-pressing Union, who excel best in transition. And they're a stubbornly tough road team, having been kept scoreless in only two of 14 away fixtures.
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Philadelphia probably wins or at worst draws. But, I like Orlando City to score exactly one goal, as it has done nine times on its travels. And the Union have conceded in eight of 15 home games.
It could come on transition early or in garbage time late when manager Oscar Pareja inserts some regulars rotated after this past Wednesday's victory.
Either way, there's plenty of value at +145 odds and an implied 40.8% probability for a wager that has a 58.6% hit rate between Philadelphia home and Orlando City away games.
By The Numbers
- 53.3% — Home games in which Philadelphia has conceded exactly once.
- 64.3% — Away games in which Orlando City has scored exactly one time.
Quillen's Pick: Orlando To Score 1 Goal Exact (+145)
Chicago vs. Inter Miami
| Chicago Odds | -112 |
| Inter Miami Odds | +285 |
| Draw | +265 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-135 / +100) |
| Day | Time | Saturday | 8 p.m. ET |
| How To Watch | ESPN+ |
| Odds via Caesars. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here. | |
This one is all about home/away trends you can explain.
Chicago, which aspires to be a high-pressing side but has some trouble in the final third of the pitch, skews heavily toward lower totals at home.
Inter Miami, which is one of the least-pressing teams in all of MLS, skews heavily toward lower road totals.
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The addition of 2020 MLS MVP Alejandro Pozuelo to Miami's attack and its improved form might make it good value to also pull off an upset.
However, it shouldn't make you think twice about playing a wager on the total staying under the number at even money and a 50% implied probability or the Both Teams To Score (No) wager at +110 odds and an implied 47.6% probability.
By The Numbers
- 71.4% — Percentage of Chicago home and Miami away games (20 of 28 games) where one team has kept a clean sheet.
- 2.20 — These teams' combined xG in those 28 matches.
Quillen's Picks: Total Under 2.5 Goals (+100) | Both Teams To Score — No (+110)
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