Formula 1 Portuguese Grand Prix 2021 Odds to Win, Qualifying Odds, Weekend Schedule: Verstappen Slight Favorite Over Hamilton

Formula 1 Portuguese Grand Prix 2021 Odds to Win, Qualifying Odds, Weekend Schedule: Verstappen Slight Favorite Over Hamilton article feature image

2021 Portuguese Grand Prix Odds

Odds via PointsBet, and with the juice removed.

Driver Odds Probability
Max Verstappen +135 38.13%
Lewis Hamilton +155 35.14%
Valtteri Bottas +1000 8.14%
Sergio Perez +1000 8.14%
Charles Leclerc +3500 2.49%
Lando Norris +4000 2.19%
Pierre Gasly +7000 1.26%
Daniel Ricciardo +7000 1.26%
Carlos Sainz Jr +8000 1.11%
Yuki Tsunoda +25000 0.36%
Fernando Alonso +50000 0.18%
Esteban Ocon +50000 0.18%
Lance Stroll +50000 0.18%
Sebastian Vettel +50000 0.18%
George Russell +50000 0.18%
Antonio Giovinazzi +50000 0.18%
Kimi Raikkonen +50000 0.18%
Nicholas Latifi +50000 0.18%
Mick Schumacher +50000 0.18%
Nikita Mazepin +50000 0.18%

Formula 1 is back after a week break with Sunday’s Portuguese Grand Prix at Algarve International Circuit. It begins at 10 a.m. ET and will be broadcast in the United States on ESPN.

Red Bull’s Max Verstappen is the favorite at PointsBet at +135 ($100 wins $135) with Mercedes’ Lewis Hamilton just behind at +155.

The Portuguese Grand Prix returned in 2020 after more than 20 years off. Hamilton won last season, with teammate Valtteri Bottas second and Verstappen third. Hamilton beat Bottas by 25.592 seconds, the second-biggest margin of last season, despite a slow start on medium tires.

At Bet365, Hamilton and Verstappen are tied atop the odds board at +120 ($100 wins $120). Their teammates Bottas and Sergio Perez the only other drivers close to the top at 8-1. Ferrari’s Charles LeClerc (33-1) and AlphaTauri’s Pierre Gasly (50-1) are the other drivers under 100-1.

At many other sportsbooks, Verstappen is the slight favorite. He’s +130 at DraftKings with Hamilton at +160. PointsBet has Verstappen +135, with Hamilton +155.

Verstappen won the Emilia Romagna Grand Prix at Imola in dominant fashion last week, with Hamilton finishing second in a thrilling comeback to remain one point up in the Driver’s Championship. Hamilton won the season-opener in Bahrain.

Portuguese Grand Prix Schedule

Bottas was fastest in FP1 on Friday morning, nipping Verstappen by .025 seconds. Hamilton was fifth, with Red Bull’s Perez third and Ferrari’s LeClerc fourth.

Bottas was actually the fastest car in practice at this race last year, but Hamilton took the pole and won the race handily.

The biggest surprise from Friday’s first practice session was Williams’ George Russell as the seventh-fastest car.

  • Practice 1: 7 a.m. ET Friday
  • Practice 2: 10 a.m. ET Friday
  • Practice 3: 7 a.m. ET Saturday
  • Qualifying: 10 a.m. ET Saturday
  • Race: Sunday, 10 a.m. ET

Odds to Win Pole

Verstappen is a heavier favorite to win pole position at PointsBet than he is to win the race.

Hamilton and Verstappen have split poles so far this season — Merc’s No. 1 car took it at Imola but finished second in the race, while Red Bull was on pole position in the opener at Bahrain but lost the race.

As we noted above, Bottas had the fastest car in practice sessions at this track last year, but ultimately lost out to Hamilton in two of the three qualifying periods to start second on the grid.

Driver Odds Probability
Max Verstappen -120 43.82%
Lewis Hamilton +195 27.23%
Valtteri Bottas +625 11.08%
Sergio Perez +850 8.46%
Lando Norris +3500 2.23%
Charles Leclerc +4000 1.96%
Pierre Gasly +7000 1.13%
Daniel Ricciardo +8000 0.99%
Carlos Sainz Jr +10000 0.80%
Yuki Tsunoda +15000 0.53%
George Russell +25000 0.32%
Esteban Ocon +50000 0.16%
Lance Stroll +50000 0.16%
Antonio Giovinazzi +50000 0.16%
Nicholas Latifi +50000 0.16%
Mick Schumacher +50000 0.16%
Fernando Alonso +50000 0.16%
Nikita Mazepin +50000 0.16%
Kimi Raikkonen +50000 0.16%
Sebastian Vettel +50000 0.16%

Odds to Finish on the Podium

Hamilton actually has a better chance to hit the podium than Verstappen at -400 (nearly a 70% probability). Their teammates are closer to even money, with McLaren’s Lando Norris next at +300.

Norris has run well to start 2021, with a podium finish at Imola.

Driver Odds Probability
Lewis Hamilton -400 69.23%
Max Verstappen -350 67.31%
Sergio Perez +105 42.22%
Valtteri Bottas +110 41.21%
Lando Norris +300 21.64%
Charles Leclerc +400 17.31%
Pierre Gasly +750 10.18%
Daniel Ricciardo +750 10.18%
Carlos Sainz Jr +800 9.62%
Yuki Tsunoda +2200 3.76%
Lance Stroll +5000 1.70%
Fernando Alonso +5000 1.70%
Sebastian Vettel +5000 1.70%
Esteban Ocon +9000 0.95%
Antonio Giovinazzi +35000 0.25%
George Russell +35000 0.25%
Kimi Raikkonen +35000 0.25%
Nicholas Latifi +40000 0.22%
Mick Schumacher +50000 0.17%
Nikita Mazepin +50000 0.17%

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