How to Remove Juice/Vig from Sports Betting Odds

Credit:

Nick Cammett/Diamond Images via Getty Images. Pictured: Jarvis Landry

The probabilities of two outcomes in sports betting never add up to 100%. That’s because sportsbooks take their cut — called the juice or vig.

But to truly see how a sportsbook views an event, you need to remove that vig.

Here’s how to do it.

How Implied Probability Works

Before we can remove the juice, we need to figure out what it is.

You’ll need to convert American odds to implied probability, then add those two probabilities together. Whatever percentage that exceeds 100% is the juice.

Let’s use a moneyline in which the Packers are -200 and the Vikings are +170 as an example.

The formulas to convert American odds to implied probabilities will be slightly different if you’re converting a negative moneyline (favorite) or positive moneyline (underdog).

Favorite: Odds / (Odds + 100) *100

Packers: 200 / (200 + 100) *100 = 66.667%

That implies the Packers have about a 66.7% chance to win this game.

Underdog: 100 / (Odds + 100) *100

Vikings: 100 / (Odds + 100) *100 = 37.04%

That implies the Vikings have about a 37% chance to win this game.

Those two probabilities add up to 103.7%.

How to Remove the Juice

Removing the juice is not as simple as dividing 3.7% by two and subtracting from each side, but it’s fairly straightforward.

Here’s the formula:

Team A Implied Probability / (Team A IP + Team B IP)

Packers: 45.45% / (45.45% + 58.33%) = 44%

Vikings: 58.33% / (58.33% + 45.45%) = 56%

That gets you to 100%.

Here’s a quick video tutorial on how to remove juice in Excel.

 

Why Remove the Juice?

It’s important to remove the juice on each implied probability so you can see what true odds are for each game. That way, you’re getting a more accurate picture of what the sportsbook and betting market really thinks of each team.

If you’re projecting games on your own using some sort of formula or model, you’ll want to compare to the true price to calculate your edge.

How would you rate this article?

Top Offers

Odds Boosts
See More >
Odds boosts are simply regular bets offered at enticing odds. They're available to everyone and there's no limit to how many you can bet.
Sportsbook Reviews
See More >
Discover the best online sports betting sites and take advantage of bonus offers from legal sportsbooks.
Expert Picks
See More >
See what plays the Action Network experts are making for all of today's games.
PRO Membership
See More >
Access betting systems and signals to get daily, actionable picks.
Download the App
See More >
Download the Action app to track all your bets in one place. Exclusive data helped you make smarter betting decisions.
Newsletter
See More >
The best sports betting newsletter with trends, insights and news - condensed in a two-minute read.
Live Odds
See More >
See live odds and the best lines for every game.

Follow Us On Social

Top Stories