North Carolina Election Polls & Betting Odds: Biden Has Slight Lead vs. Trump


JIM WATSON/AFP via Getty Images. Pictured: Joe Biden

North Carolina Election Odds

Implied Probability
Joe Biden
Donald Trump

Odds as of Oct. 16 and via European sportsbook Betfair. If you’re new to betting, Donald Trump’s +110 odds mean a $100 bet would net $110 if he wins North Carolina. Convert odds using our Betting Odds Calculator. Also note that the implied probabilities above do not include the tax the book charges.

North Carolina Polls

FiveThirtyEight Polling Average
Joe Biden
Donald Trump

538 North Carolina Projection

FiveThirtyEight Projection
Joe Biden
Donald Trump

Polling averages and projections as of Oct. 16 and via FiveThirtyEight. Go to their 2020 Election Forecast to learn more.

North Carolina Presidential Race Updates

Friday, Oct. 16: With less than three weeks until Election Day, the betting market gives Joe Biden a 55.7% implied probability of winning North Carolina compared to Donald Trump’s 44.3% implied probability.

FiveThirtyEight’s forecast –which simulates the election 40,000 times — is projecting the former Vice President to win North Carolina 66 out of every 100 times and the President only 34 out of every 100.

The site’s average of polls currently gives Biden a 49% vs. 45.9% edge over Trump in the state.

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With 15 of the 538 total electoral votes, North Carolina has the seventh-most in the country.

Trump won North Carolina by 3.66% over Hillary Clinton in 2016, making it his seventh-closest margin of victory during that election. Trump ended up winning 304 of the electoral college votes compared to Clinton’s 227 in 2016.

North Carolina had long been considered a Republican stronghold before Barack Obama won there in 2008. He then only barely lost it to Mitt Romney in 2012, affirming its evolving identity as a battleground state.

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