European Soccer Best Bets, Projected Odds & Forecast for Bundesliga, Serie A, La Liga, More (March 4-7)

With the Bundesliga, La Liga, and Ligue 1 title races all but wrapped up, the pursuit of the top spot in Serie A has become incredibly fascinating.

This past weekend, Inter Milan dropped points for the third consecutive match; AC Milan was held to 1-1 draw with Udinese; and, Napoli now sits in first place after a stoppage-time winner against Lazio in the Italian top flight.

That late goal has now set up a massive match Saturday, with Napoli hosting second-place AC Milan, who are tied on points with 57 after 26 matches. There are also a few of other intriguing matches around Europe, with Bayern Munich hosting Bayer Leverkusen; Real Betis taking on Atlético Madrid; and, Roma going up against Atalanta. So, it's setting up to be a fantastic weekend.

If you'd like to read more about how I determine my projections, you can check it all out here.

You can use these projections to identify betting value on current lines, plus follow me in The Action Network App to see any bets I make during the week.

Bundesliga Projections

Best Bets

Bayern Munich vs. Bayer Leverkusen

As crazy as it sounds, Bayern Munich is actually getting a tad bit undervalued in the market for the first time in as long as I can remember.

The Bavarians' offense is without a doubt the best in the world, highlighted by some of the numbers they're putting up in the Bundesliga.

*(data via fbref.com & infogol.net)

The last time they faced Leverkusen they absolutely thrashed them in a 5-1 road win, racking up 49 shot-creating actions, 58 touches in the penalty area and 3.2 expected goals, per fbref.com.

Leverkusen is a massive over-performer on offense, as they've scored a whopping 63 goals off 45.1 xG this season. So, facing the No. 1 defense in the league that's only conceding 0.93 NPxG per match is a perfect spot to bet on some of that offensive negative regression.

I have Bayern Munich's spread projected at -1.96, so I like the value on its spread of -1.5 at -110 odds and will make it my top selection.

Pick: Bayern Munich -1.5 (-110)

Vfb Stuttgart vs. Gladbach

Stuttgart and Gladbach are on really bad runs right now. Stuttgart is winless in its last nine matches, while Gladbach has only two wins in its last 13 games.

The biggest problem for these clubs has been on the defensive end of the pitch. During its nine-match winless streak, Vfb Stuttgart has allowed a whopping 16.3 xGA and 16 big scoring chances. On the other side, Gladbach has conceded 25 xGA over its last 13 contests. 

The flip side of that, though, is the fact Gladbach still boasts a very good offense, ranking second in the league in shots per 90 minutes, which is big against Stuttgart, which is dead last in shots allowed per 90 minutes. All of those shots are great, but Gladbach’s 0.23 xG per shot (fifth in the Bundesliga) shows they still feature a top-five Bundesliga offense.

Stuttgart’s offense has been trending in the right direction ever since they got their best striker — Sasa Kalajdzic — back from injury in January. He’s started four of the last five games and created two xG, which is about on par with last season when he had a 0.47 xG per 90-minute scoring rate in a full season.

In those five games that Kalajdzic played, Stuttgart averaged 1.34 xG per match, which is an uptick from its 1.12 xG per outing average without him in the lineup, per understat.com.

I have 3.15 goals projected for this showdown, so I love the total clearing 2.5 goals at -145 odds.

Pick: Total Over 2.5 Goals (-145)

 Serie A Projections

Best Bets

Roma vs. Atalanta

Roma has been on a tear of late in Serie A play. Over its last seven matches, manager Jose Mourinho’s side has a +10 xGDiff, which is the best in league over that time span. The club is due for so much positive regression on dense and it's not even funny In those last seven games, it has allowed 12 goals off five xG, per fbref.com.

Roma is also has the most efficient offense in Serie A, averaging 0.30 xG per shot, which is impressive considering it's second in shots per 90 minutes. The side also features the best set-piece offense in Italy, scoring 14 goals from 14.8 xG so far this season, per Opta.

Atalanta enters this fixture off a 4-0 drubbing of Sampdoria on Monday, but is due for some negative regression. In its last four matches across all competitions, Atalanta has scored nine goals from 3.1 xG in the process.

So, facing a Roma defense that's second in shots allowed per 90 minutes, third in box entries conceded and is due for a ton of positive defensive regression, we have a perfect statistical situation for the home side.

I have Roma projected as a +134 favorite, so I like the value on its Draw No Bet line of -120 odds.

Pick: Roma — Draw No Bet (-120)

Cagliari vs. Lazio

For those who haven’t noticed yet, Cagliari is on a pretty nice run right now to pull itself out of the relegation fight.

Now, the club gets another chance to take down one of the big boys with Lazio coming to town. Lazio is a crazy over-performer in Serie A, scoring 54 goals off 36.7 xG, per fbref.com. So, they are due for a lot of negative regression.

Lazio is basically entirely reliant on big scoring chances because it's 15th in Italy in shots per 90 minutes, but second in big scoring chances. Cagliari has only allowed four big scoring chances in its last seven matches. 

*(graphic via infogol.net)

Defensively, Lazio has been pretty average all season long under manager Maurizio Sarri. The side is currently eighth in NPxG allowed, but in the bottom half of the league in shots allowed and box entries yielded per 90 minutes. It’s also quite funny how lucky the team has been in terms of its pressing.

Lazio is 15th in PPDA; 20th in ball recoveries; and, 10th in high turnovers, but some how they lead the Italian first division with nine goals off high turnovers, per Opta. So, it’s safe to say that Lazio’s luck is set to run out at some point. 

That said, I like Cagliari to pull off a huge upset here at +270 odds and would play it down to +250 odds.

Pick: Cagliari ML (+270)

La Liga Projections

Best Bets

Real Betis vs. Atlético Madrid

Real Betis might be in the third place, but it's a team screaming for negative regression, mainly on offense. So far, Real Betis has scored 48 goals off 39.4 xG this season. In fact, in its last eight matches, the club has scored 18 goals off 11 xG, per fbref.com.

What’s even more concerning about Real Betis is how bad it has been against the top seven teams in Spain. In nine matches against Real Madrid, Barcelona, Sevilla, Atlético Madrid, Real Sociedad and Villarreal, Real Betis has a -6.6 xGDiff and re only averaging 0.57 xG per match. Against the rest of the table, they’re averaging 2.03 xG per game and have a +14 xGDiff this season.

Atlético Madrid is in a battle for fourth place and the final Champions League spot, meaning three points over Betis would see it leapfrog into the top four.

Needless to say, this is a massive match for these clubs. Once again, Atlético's defense is playing at an elite level, allowing only 0.87 xG per game and leading La Liga in pretty much every defensive category. The offense has been improving as well, with 10.2 xG in their last seven fixtures.

The Real Betis defense has been very susceptible to giving up high-quality chances and it's the reason why it's 13th in La Liga in non-penalty expected goals allowed. Real Betis has yielded 34 big scoring chances in 26 matches, which is 15th overall in Spain. Atlético Madrid has created 11 big scoring chances in its last five matches.

I have Atlético projected as a +104 favorite, so I love the side at +140 odds to grab all three points.

Pick: Atlético Madrid ML (+140)

Ligue 1 Projections

Best Bets

Lorient vs. Lyon

Lorient is currently in the relegation battle, but is a highly underrated team near the bottom of the table. On the season, the side has a -18 actual goal differential, but only a -4.3 xGDiff overall.

So, I think a lot of of that positive regression is going to come on offense as it has scored only 21 goals off 29.9 xG, per fbref.com. And what better time to get some of that positive regression back against one of the worst defenses in the French top flight.

For the season, Lyon is allowing 1.4 xG per match, which is 15th in the league. The team has been improving of late, but it's most likely going to be without one of their starting center backs — Jason Denayer — for this contest.

Lorient’s performances as of late have actually been very impressive and show the side is really due for some positive regression.

*(graphic via infogol.net)

The home/road splits for Lyon are quite shocking. The club has been amazing at home, putting up a +15 xGDiff overall. However, on the road, Lyon has a -6.7 xGDiff and allows 1.94 xG per match.

I only have Lyon projected at +128 odds, so I like the value on Lorient getting +0.5 goals on the spread line at -105 odds and will make it my top pick.

Pick: Lorient +0.5 (-105)

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