Premier League Odds and Picks: Southampton vs. Burnley, Liverpool vs. Norwich and Spurs vs. Villa
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Things continue moving back to normal in the Premier League season, with the winter break slowly coming to a close for England’s top flight of soccer.
Liverpool returns to the pitch, highlighting the abbreviated weekend card. The Reds, who have all but clinched their first Premier League title in three decades, travel to Norwich City and look for another win during what has become a truly historic season.
Outside of what seems to be another Liverpool triumph, there are some interesting matches that are tricky to handicap.
Let’s take a look at some of the betting angles for this weekend’s slate:
Odds as of Wednesday morning and via DraftKings, where Action Network users get a risk-free bet up to $500.
Burnley at Southampton Odds
- Burnley odds: +375
- Southampton odds: -132
- Draw: +270
- Over/Under: 2.5 (-103/-121)
- Time: Saturday, 7:30 a.m. ET
At first glance, this looks like the toughest match to handicap this week on the Premier League slate.
Both clubs have dreams of finishing in the top half of the standings, with Burnley currently in 11th place and Southampton close behind in 13th place. The teams are both on 31 points, but Burnley holds a superior goal differential on the table.
Burnley has been the definition of streaky in league action. Prior to their February 2 scoreless draw against Arsenal, the Clarets’ last 16 performances went like this:
- Two wins
- Four losses
- Two wins
- Three losses
- Two wins
- Three losses
However, the two wins that came prior to the tie against the Gunners were victories against Manchester United and powerful Leicester City.
Bottom line, there has been no consistency for Burnley, which must be frustrating for manager Sean Dyche.
Burnley vs. Southampton Tale of the Tape
- Southampton has scored at least one goal in seven of its last eight games
- Burnley are undefeated in their last six matches against Southampton in all competitions
- Southampton have found success at home against Burnley, losing only once in their last four league matches against the Clarets
- Burnley has been shut out in four of its last seven league road games
Southampton is equally as hard of a read, due to the fact it has just one win in its last five matches across all competitions. However, the Saints are 5-2-1 in their last eight Premier League contests entering this St. Mary’s showdown. Southampton’s most recent league contest was a 4-0 drubbing at the hands of Liverpool.
Bottom line, these clubs are so evenly matched that I can’t see either risking too much and either blowing this opportunity for at least a point. Back Burnley on the spread or if you’re feeling a little frisky, you can sprinkle a little on the draw.
The Bet(s): Burnley +1 (-160); Draw (+270)
Liverpool at Norwich City Odds
- Liverpool odds: -375
- Norwich City odds: +900
- Draw: +510
- Over/Under: 3.5 (+128/-162)
- Time: Saturday, 12:30 p.m. ET
Welcome to the mismatch of the Premier League season.
Liverpool heads to Carrow Road with its 24-0-1 record and 73 points to take on a Norwich City side that sits in last place among the 20 teams with a measly four victories and 18 points.
Liverpool vs. Norwich City Tale of the Tape
- Norwich City has scored at least two goals in their last three home matches against Liverpool in all competitions
- Liverpool has scored at least two goals in 22 of its 25 Premier League matches this season
- The total has gone over 2.5 goals in Norwich City’s last five home matches against Liverpool in all competitions
- Liverpool has scored at least three goals in seven of their last eight matches against Norwich City across all competitions
The only thing that could possibly make this an interesting match is if Liverpool looks ahead to its Champions League match, scheduled for Tuesday against Atletico Madrid.
However, I am not remotely banking on that happening. The Reds are too deep, too hot and too damn good. This is a club that can wrap up the Premier League title as early as next month and getting three points here is the only acceptable outcome for manager Jürgen Klopp and the reigning Champions League titleholders.
The Bet: Liverpool -1.5 (-120)
Tottenham Hotspur at Aston Villa Odds
- Tottenham odds: -112
- Aston Villa odds: +300
- Draw odds: +270
- Over/Under: 2.5 (-148/+120)
- Time: Sunday, 9 a.m. ET
Another match featuring clubs sitting at opposite ends of the league table.
Aston Villa is in dire need of a positive result in this contest. The club currently sits in 17th-place in the league standings and just a point outside the relegation zone.
In contrast, Tottenham is in sixth-place in the Premier League and hope a second-half surge could vault it to a Champions League berth. Spurs have been in decent form as of late, picking up a 2-0 win against Manchester City back on February 2 in their most recent league outing.
Tottenham Hotspur vs. Aston Villa Tale of the Tape
- Aston Villa has scored at least one goal in 11 of its 12 home matches in Premier League action
- Tottenham has just two wins in 12 league road matches this season
- The total has surpassed 2.5 total goals in five of Aston Villa’s last six Premier League matches
- Tottenham has only recorded four clean sheets in 25 league contests
History is also working against Aston Villa entering the match, with the host losing five consecutive games against its foe at Villa Park.
That all said, everything seems to point to Spurs grabbing all three points in this showdown. However, I don’t trust the Jose Mourinho-led side in this tilt, largely in part because of its abysmal record away from Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.
The safer play is backing the total going over 2.5 goals for the match and that’s where I will land.
The bet: Over 2.5 goals (-148)