If you've ever bet soccer and been confused when your bet didn't cash as you expected, you're not alone. Not realizing the difference between a two-way moneyline and three-way line one of the most common mistakes new soccer bettors make.
If you're betting on a team to win and the draw is offered as an option, you'll lose your bet if the match ends in a draw. The only way it will be refunded is if you take the "draw no bet" option. And the most important thing to remember is that the three-way line and most other soccer bets don't include extra time. These bets only count the first 90 minutes plus stoppage time.
Most sports use two-way moneylines because ties are impossible (NBA, NHL, MLB) or unlikely (NFL). But in soccer, draws happen about a quarter of the time, so it's offered as one of the three primary options — Team A wins, Team B wins, or it ends in a draw.
Let's use the a previous Champions League final between Chelsea and Manchester City to dive deeper.
Three-Way Moneyline
There are three possible outcomes of a soccer match after regulation — Team A wins, Team B wins, or it's tied.
That's why you see most soccer betting lines with those three options. It's the default option at most sportsbooks.
In this group stage match, Man City had a 49% chance to win in regulation, according to oddsmakers.
| Result (After 90 mins) | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Manchester City wins | -106 | 49% |
| Chelsea wins | +300 | 24% |
| Draw | +250 | 27% |
Two-Way Moneyline
Lets look at another example from a match that can go to extra time.
With a two-way moneyline, you have a little bit more safety, but you're not going to get as good a price.
There are two primary types of two-way moneylines.
Draw No Bet
Draw No Bet is just what it sounds like. If you bet a team and it wins, your bet wins. If it's a draw, your bet is refunded. If the team loses, your bet loses.
The cushion you get from the draw is baked into the price, of course. Man City was -275 on the Draw No Bet line, up from -106. Chelsea was +190, down from +300 on the three-way line.
The books are essentially just splitting the probability of a draw between the two teams, and adjusting the odds. Some books charge futures — DraftKings is holding about 8% of this wager, while it holds about 4.8% on a standard NFL point spread.
| Result | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Man City wins | -275 | 68% |
| Chelsea wins | +190 | 32% |
Double Chance
Double Chance means you’re betting on a specific team to win or draw, or either team to win. And again, it's all baked into the odds.
There are three possible outcomes for Double Chances:
| Result (After 90 mins) | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Man City or Draw | -230 | 69.7% |
| Chelsea or Draw | -150 | 60% |
| Man City or Chelsea wins | -200 | 66.7% |
This gives you a much better chance to cash your bet, but you're paying for it.
To Advance or to Lift the Trophy
In tournament situations, you can always bet a three-way moneyline or two-way moneyline where only the first 90 minutes of regulation time matter.
But there's another two-outcome option that may resonate with American sports fans more — betting a team to advance or to lift the trophy (if it's the title game).
In the Champions League final, Chelsea was +300 on the three-way line, but +165 to lift the trophy
Getting the full, but also worse odds.
| Result | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Man City wins | -205 | 64% |
| Chelsea wins | +165 | 36% |
