Tottenham Hotspur vs. Fulham EPL Odds, Picks and Predictions: Back Spurs to Win Big (Wednesday, Jan. 13)

Tottenham Hotspur vs. Fulham EPL Odds, Picks and Predictions: Back Spurs to Win Big (Wednesday, Jan. 13) article feature image
Credit:

Justin Setterfield/Getty Images. Pictured: Ademola Lookman

  • Tottenham Hotspur are big favorites over Fulham in their Premier League match on Wednesday afternoon.
  • Should the line be this high? Or do Fulham have some value on the road? Dillon Essma breaks down Wednesday's London Derby:

Tottenham vs. Fulham Odds

Tottenham Odds -245 [BET NOW]
Fulham Odds +650 [BET NOW]
Draw +390 [BET NOW]
Over/Under 3 (+108/-130) [BET NOW]
Day | Time Wednesday | 3:15 p.m. ET
TV NBCSN

The Premier League schedule has taken a hit over the past few weeks and Tottenham have been jerked around a bit. Spurs were supposed to play Aston Villa on Wednesday, but that match was postponed due to COVID issues at Villa. So the Premier League scheduled Spurs to host Fulham after the two teams had their Dec. 30 match called off due to the virus.

Got all that? Good.

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Tottenham

After a tough run of fixtures, Spurs returned to the win column by beating Leeds, 3-0, on Jan. 2. It was a convincing victory, as Spurs won the expected goals battle 2.53 to 1.16.

It’s always hard to take results against Leeds to mean anything since Marcelo Bielsa’s team is such an outlier, but it was an important result for Jose Mourinho’s men as their season started to sputter during the Festive Period.

Spurs tend to struggle against teams that sit back and dare them to attack and Leeds are basically the opposite of that. Prior to the win over Leeds, Spurs were winless in four matches with losses to Liverpool and Leicester and draws against Crystal Palace and Wolves.

While the draws against Palace and Wolves were warranted, you could argue that Spurs were the better side against Liverpool. Tottenham generated 1.52 xG to Liverpool’s 1.22 that night and were unlucky to concede a late winner. Spurs were not up to it against Leicester, though, as the Foxes dominated Spurs 1.75 to 0.95 according to xG models.

The issue with Mourinho’s style is that the margins are thin, but I still think they’ll continue to trend up. Tottenham rank fifth in non-penalty expected goal (npxGD) in the Premier League and boast the fourth-best defense according to non-penalty expected goals against.

As is always the case with Mourinho sides, the team’s struggles are going forward. Tottenham are only generating 1.37 npxG per match at the moment. Those numbers are a byproduct of Mourinho’s style as the Portuguese prefers his teams to sacrifice possession in order to counter-attack at the right times.

It is a frustrating style to watch (and play against), since Spurs have the players to light it up offensively if they were able to play a more free-flowing style.

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Fulham

Fulham have not played a Premier League match since a goalless draw against Southampton on Boxing Day. While they did have an FA Cup fixture over the weekend, Scott Parker’s side should be well-rested for this encounter.

Fulham come into this game on a four-game unbeaten streak, though all four matches ended in draws. The Cottagers remain in the relegation zone, but they are three points behind Brighton with two games in hand.

If you look at their recent stretch, you could make an argument that this is a team on the rise. The Cottagers were unlucky not to have defeated Brighton and Southampton, and while their underlying metrics against Newcastle look even, that’s because Fulham played most of the second half with 10 men. The draw against Liverpool was also quite impressive.

Through 15 games, Fulham’s npxGD ranks 15th in the Premier League at -5.51. That number doesn’t pop off the page, but it’s miles ahead of the two teams behind them in the table, Sheffield United (-11.85) and West Brom (-23.49). By that metric, Fulham are basically on par with Crystal Palace and Newcastle.

Fulham’s chance creation is still not where they’d like it, but they have shown improvements on defense to take the burden off of the strikeforce. Aleksandar Mitrovic and Ademola Lookman are Fulham’s best attackers with a combined xG and xA total of 10.9 through 15 games. Those numbers have only translated to two goals and two assists for each, though.

Fulham vs. Tottenham Best Bet

While I still think that Fulham could be a bet-on side going forward, I don’t think this is the right matchup to play the Cottagers.

When this game was originally slated, I liked the under due to the congested fixture schedule. However, with both sides well-rested, I think Spurs will take care of business.

I like the plus-money on Spurs to win by at least two goals.

The Bet: Tottenham -1.5 (+118)

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