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Premier League Week 9 Betting Preview: Should Bettors Avoid Draws?

Oct 19, 2018 5:18 PM EDT
  • Premier League Week 9 action kicks off Saturday morning at 7:30 a.m. ET with a clash between Manchester United and Chelsea at Stamford Bridge.
  • There have yet to be any big upsets in the EPL this season, and draws have cost bettors dearly (-22 units).
  • After analyzing the betting market for each match, I've picked out two value plays to make.

The international break is a complete buzzkill for soccer fans, but there’s plenty to be excited about once it’s over.

The very first matchup of the weekend will be full of drama between Jose Mourinho’s former club (Chelsea) and current club (Manchester United) — though “current” may not apply much longer to Mourinho and Man U considering with the mounting speculation that he’ll be sacked.

Bettors should also expect a flurry of goals this weekend. Using our Bet Labs historical database, we can easily see that overs have hit at a 57.7% rate when both teams have 10+ days off between games.

2018-19 Season Trends

All three moneyline types (home, away, draw) are in the red this season, but draws have been the worst bet overall.

This season has also been a colossal struggle for big underdogs, and we’ve yet to see one major upset: teams closing +500 or higher on the moneyline have failed to win all 39 matches this season, meaning if you wagered $100 on every sizable dog, you’d be down $3,900. 

Will things be different in Week 9? By analyzing the betting market and historical data, I’ve picked out two value plays to make for this weekend.

2018-19 Season Record: 8-19-1 (-5.53 units)


Brighton at Newcastle (Saturday, 10 a.m. ET, NBC Sports Gold)

  • Newcastle Odds: +120
  • Brighton Odds: +292
  • Draw Odds: +221
  • Over/Under: 2 (o-115)

This won’t be a match that catches the eyes of neutrals, but there’s surely value to be had.

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Credit:

@ManUtd. Pictured: Manchester United manager Jose Mourinho

Follow Dan McGuire on Twitter
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