Premier League Betting Odds & Picks: Arsenal vs. Chelsea (Saturday, Dec. 26)
John Walton/PA Images via Getty Images. Pictured: Chelsea star Christian Pulisic, left, dribbles the ball against West Ham United.
- The heat has been turned up on Arsenal manager Mikel Arteta and a loss to Chelsea on Boxing Day could be the final straw for the once-promising young manager.
- After losing two matchs in a row, Chelsea beat West Ham last week and now find themselves as even-money favorites to take all three points on the road.
- Where does the betting value lie on Saturday? Jeremy Pond breaks it down:
Arsenal vs. Chelsea Odds
|Arsenal Odds||+275 [BET NOW]|
|Chelsea Odds||+102 [BET NOW]|
|Draw||+255 [BET NOW]|
|Over/Under||2.5 (-104/-121) [BET NOW]|
|Time||12:30 p.m. ET|
|TV||NBC | fuboTV|
If you’re looking for an exciting Premier League match, look no further than what’s about to happen on Boxing Day in London.
Chelsea makes the short trip to the Emirates, where the Blues will face Arsenal on Saturday in the latest edition of the North West London derby. This will be the 202nd time these rivals have met, with the Gunners holding 78-65-58 (W-L-D) advantage in the overall series.
The Blues enter this match fresh off a 3-0 win over West Ham United last out, which snapped a two-game skid in the England’s top flight.
In contrast, things could not be going worse for Arsenal at the moment. The Gunners continue to be a hot mess, suffering a 2-1 loss to Everton in its most recent game.
Arsenal, winless in six of its last eight matches across all competitions, has only tasted victory against Europa League foes Rapid Wien and Dundalk during its current terrible run of form.
Let’s take a look at these clubs and see what might be in store for this game.
If manager Mikel Arteta wasn’t on the hot seat, he is now after Arsenal’s brutal loss to Manchester City. The Gunners, winless in six of their last eight overall matches, now face a Chelsea side fresh off that thrashing of West Ham United.
Suffice it to say, a loss to the Blues at the Emirates could be the straw that breaks the camel’s back for Arteta with this historic franchise.
Tactically, I fully expect Arsenal to come out on its front foot and attempt to wreak havoc on Chelsea’s back line. However, that kind of approach would play right into the Blues’ counterattacking hands and prove costly to the Gunners.
When it comes to statistical data, Arsenal’s numbers depict a club that is struggling on both sides of the ball. The Gunners sit on 15.7 expected goals and lackluster 17.2 expected goals against, resulting in a poor -1.5 xGDiff and -0.11 xGDiff/90 minutes.
Unlike Arsenal outfits of the past, this group is one of the league’s worst at finding the back of the net. The Gunners have just 12 goals through 14 fixtures, which is fourth-worst overall.
Only Burnley and Sheffield United, who are tied with a league-low eight goals, and West Bromwich Albion (10) have more stagnant attacks than Arsenal.
Manager Frank Lampard had to be pleased with his side’s impressive rout of West Ham United after two dismal performances prior to that victory.
Tammy Abraham struck for a brace in the win over the Hammers, which pushed Chelsea into fifth place on the table. The Blues’ offense and defense were dominate against West Ham, holding a 2.1 xG-0.6 xG edge.
Depending on what happens in the other fixtures, Chelsea could work its way into second place behind league-leader Liverpool with a road triumph. The Blues, led by Olivier Giroud and American international Christian Pulisic, will look to get out of the gate fast and further demoralize an Arsenal side that’s really struggling at both ends of the park.
As for Chelsea’s advanced metrics, Lampard’s lads continue to be one of the league’s finest across the board.
The Blues have generated a stellar 23.9 xGs and solid 13.4 expected goals against, resulting in a sizzling +10.5 xGDiff and +0.75 for xGDiff/90 minutes. They only trail Liverpool in XGDiff and xGDiff/90 on the entire 20-team table.
Betting Analysis & Picks
I really can’t find my way around Chelsea not walking away with all three points in this showdown.
The Blues are simply the better club, with a much better mindset as a whole that’s playing against an opponent inferior in all areas on and off the field. Chelsea has so many ways to break you down, highlighted by balanced offensive production in its opponents’ defensive third of the pitch.
However, I like the possibility of this being hotly contested battle of offenses even more than the Blues’ chances of earning the road win. That said, I am backing the total to go over the number at a reasonable price in what I see as a wide-open tilt that’s going to feature plenty of scoring chances.
History is also on our side when it comes to this angle, with Arsenal and Chelsea having combined to score at least three goals in their last four meetings across all competitions.
I will also throw a little on Chelsea at minus-103 via a moneyline wager, with this being an extremely fair price. You could hold off and catch a live number at plus money early in the opening half if things start off slow in this contest.
Picks: Chelsea ML (-103) | Total Over 2.5 Goals (-107)