Premier League Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Manchester City vs. Burnley (Saturday, Nov. 28)
Tom Flathers/Manchester City FC via Getty Images. Pictured: Manchester City star Sergio Aguero.
- Manchester City hosts Burnley in Premier League action Saturday at Etihad Stadium.
- The Cityzens have dominated the series in the last five league fixtures, holding a 16-2 edge in goals scored.
- Dillon Essma tells us why he likes the host side to win via shutout.
Manchester City vs. Burnley Odds
|Manchester City Odds||-910 [BET NOW]|
|Burnley Odds||+2000 [BET NOW]|
|Draw||+950 [BET NOW]|
|Over/Under||3.5 (+114/-141) [BET NOW]|
|Time||10 a.m. ET|
Manchester City welcomes Burnley to Etihad Stadium on Saturday for their Premier League match.
Historically, this has been a fixture that has been kind to the Cityzens. However, Manchester City has struggled so far this season in England’s top flight.
On the other side, Burnley is coming off its first victory of its campaign.
Let’s take a look to see who comes out on top in this contest.
The Cityzens have been a disappointment to start the season, currently sitting in 14th place on the table. I don’t think anyone expect that subpar showing to continue, but it’s a hole Manchester City has to get itself out of in a timely fashion.
Starting 3-3-2 through eight matches has been a surprise, as the Cityzens were slight favorites to lift the trophy this season. The surprise to me has been their struggle on the offensive end. Manchester City has generated 1.55 xG and conceded 1.24 xGA/game this season. That is quite a contrast to 2.69 xG and 0.97 xGA/game it produced last season.
Injuries and absences from Kevin De Bruyne and Sergio Aguero might have something to do with the slow start, though. However, it could be a tactical shift from manager Pep Guardiola trying to limit mistakes on the counter hampering his side.
Regardless, the Cityzens have a minus-2 goal differential, along with a +0.31 xG differential that is too low given the quality of this squad.
The good news is the club has been dominate against Burnley as of late. Manchester City holds a 16-2 edge in goals against Burnley in their last five league fixtures. Domestic cup games don’t do Burnley many favors, either.
Guardiola rested some players midweek in Champions League play, but De Bruyne should be good to go. Aguero also sounds like he is more fit, potentially giving the side some quality minutes.
Burnley have also struggled this season, sitting right above the relegation zone in 17th place. However, the Clarets did just pick up their first win via a triumph over Crystal Palace in its previous game.
Having Ben Mee and James Tarkovsky back in the defense has been a big boost. Offensively, it’s always going to be a bit of a struggle , but generating 1.75 xG in that victory over Crystal Palace was a great performance. The questions remains if they can recreate that performance against a club far superior in talent.
So far this season, Burnley has generated 0.85 xG/game and conceded 1.16 xGA in the advanced metrics. However, these numbers have been improving and I would expect them to converge to a flat differential as the season progresses.
I like the way the Clarets are playing, but this is just an awful spot for them. I do expect Burnley to make Manchester City work for everything, but believe manager Sean Dyche and the Clarets should leave the stadium with the same amount of points had when they arrived.
Betting Analysis & Picks
I am going to play Manchester City to bag all three points via a clean sheet, but will go about it in a creative way.
Burnley’s team total of under a half goal at minus-167 is far too expensive. I would have considered playing the game total of under 3.5 goals, but again, it’s much too costly at -137 in my opinion.
That said, I am going to play Manchester City to win via the exact score lines of 1-0 (+750); 2-0 (+525); and, 3-0 (+540) as my top picks. That gives us +550, +325 or +340 if we use equal unit sizing.
Hopefully, Manchester City gets its clean sheet and doesn’t go crazy on the Burnley defense. The Cityzens haven’t had huge offensive outputs recently, so I like this strategy.
Picks: Exact Score — Manchester City 1-0 (+750) | Manchester City 2-0 (+525) | Manchester City 3-0 (+540)