Leicester City vs. Chelsea Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Back Foxes vs. Struggling Blues in Tuesday EPL Clash
Tim Keeton – Pool/Getty Images. Pictured: James Maddison.
- Leicester City has a chance to climb to the top of the English Premier League table with a win over Chelsea.
- The Blues have been scuffling of late, but can make a push toward a top-four finish with a victory.
- Anthony Debbundo previews the Premier League fixture below.
Leicester City vs. Chelsea Odds
|Leicester City Odds||+145 [BET NOW]|
|Chelsea Odds||+185 [BET NOW]|
|Draw||+240 [BET NOW]|
|Over/Under||2.5 (-120/-110) [BET NOW]|
|Day | Time||Tuesday, 3:15 p.m. ET|
Leicester City will have a chance to go top of the table on Tuesday afternoon when the Foxes host struggling Chelsea at the King Power Stadium. The Blues have been in a troubling bit of form, but could move closer to the top four with a win.
Much attention is being paid to the offensive struggles of the Blues, and more specifically Timo Werner. The German striker hasn’t had the easiest transition to the Premier League by his own admission, but he’s still getting into plenty of dangerous positions and averaging 0.6 xG + xA per 90. The Blues’ bigger issues of late have actually been on the defensive end. Since Dec. 20, Chelsea is ninth in non-penalty xG difference and is 13th in xGA allowed. The No. 1 concerning metric for this Blues defense is the amount of passes they’re allowing inside their own penalty area. Chelsea was one of the league’s best in this metric in the first half of the year, ranking second best through 10 matches.
But since that point, they rank 13th because N’Golo Kanté has not been nearly as effective in the destroyer role in the midfield. Kanté’s dip in performance and Reece James’ injury are hurting the Blues’ defense, especially with how poor César Azpilicueta has been defensively.
Chelsea’s attack problems notwithstanding, their defensive issues could be significantly more problematic long term than this short-term period of poor finishing and mixing and matching of lineups.
Leicester City’s 2020-21 season can be divided into two parts. The Foxes began the season well in terms of results, but their underlying performances were rather mediocre. They relied heavily on penalties early in the season to buoy their otherwise underwhelming attack. With multiple key ball progresses and chance creators out of the lineup, Leicester was able to keep up results while not playing all that well.
In part two of the season, the Foxes’ defense is much improved and their offense is starting to come together. They’re unbeaten in five PL matches with three wins and two draws. They’ve won the xG battle by at least half a goal in four of those five matches and the healthy return of Wilfred Ndidi in the midfield has improved the defense, while a healthy James Maddison has improved the attack.
Leicester are still 11th in non-penalty xG difference this year, but since Dec. 22, the Foxes rank sixth, showing that there’s been marginal improvement across the board. Most of their improvement has come in defense, where Leicester have the league’s third-best defense by xGA since Dec. 20, when Ndidi made his full time return to the defensive midfield.
Betting Analysis & Picks
Given Leicester’s trending up defensive numbers and the Blues’ defensive numbers on the decline, I have much more faith in the Foxes to avoid losing here than I do Chelsea. I expect this to be a low-scoring battle, but with these teams projected even in my recent form weighted numbers, I’ll take the Foxes at plus-money on the draw no bet line.
Pick: Leicester City draw no bet (+105 or better)