Tim Groothuis/Witters Sport via USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Sweden’s Pontus Jansson (18) and Mikael Lustig (2)
Mexico vs. Sweden, 10 a.m. ET, FOX
- Mexico +141
- Sweden +223
- Draw +238
Bet To Watch
Over 2.5 goals (+125)
Mexico only need to earn a draw to clinch the top spot in Group E and a place in the Round of 16, but they could potentially miss out completely with a loss. That would be a shame after already beating Germany and South Korea in their previous matches.
For Sweden, it’s possible they could advance with a draw, but they essentially need to beat Mexico to have any chance at qualifying for the next round. If they had held on for a point against Germany, things would be different, but it’s hard to feel bad for them considering they had just 24% of possession in that game.
Sweden sat back and absorbed pressure for almost the entire match against Germany, which nearly paid off, but they’ll need to be on the front foot against Mexico. Unfortunately that helps play into the hands of their opponent, who have been deadly on the counter-attack so far.
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We’ve seen just how crucial set pieces have been throughout the tournament, and that may be Sweden’s lifeline in this match. They should have a bit more possession than they did last outing and could try to set up on any foul in the attacking half. Ideally they’d get a goal and sit back by holding on to 1-0, but I don’t believe things will be that easy.
If either team does get a goal, especially early, some risks will have to be taken by the opponent. Neither team wants to see a wide-open match, but that’s how it could unfold eventually.
The majority of public bettors are taking under (2.5) goals and expecting to see a low-scoring result, so going with the over is also a contrarian angle. For me, there’s a better chance this game features at least three goals than two or fewer, so I’ll gladly take the +125 odds.