ATP Betting Value on Tuesday’s Card at Montpellier, Quito, and Sofia
© Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports
With the Aussie Open in our rearview mirrors, we enter the “meat and potatoes” of the tennis calendar. Tuesday, we find a full slate of tennis with three tournaments underway in Montpellier, Quito, and Sofia. I’ll first give a quick review of Tuesday’s card for each tourney and then dive into the following two matches that I feel hold the most betting value.
- Facundo Bagnis -110 vs Nicolas Jarry (4:30 pm ET)
- Stefanos Tsitsipas -133 vs Jérémy Chardy (8 am ET)
As we mentioned in our weekly tournament preview guide, there is not much to see in Sofia. Tuesday’s slate looks more like a Challenger (one step below Tour level) tournament. The two large favorites — Martin Klizan (-3104) and Denis Istomin (-3085) — should both get through their first-round matches, but I see no value from a betting perspective.
Rounding out the rest of the slate, we find three “pick ’ems” in:
- Jozef Kovalik (-108) vs. Radu Albot
- Mirza Basic (-115) vs. Sergiy Stakhovsky
- Viktor Troicki (-126) vs. Ernests Gulbis
Frankly, I have zero interest in any of the three, although Troicki/Gulbis should have entertainment value. Expect a number of wild swings and a meltdown or three, which should excite those who play in the live markets. It also could present a nice spot to back the over. However, I’ll pass.
In the first two matches in Quito, I think both dogs hold some value with Federico Gaio (+211) and Thiago Monteiro (+116). Conversely, in the two matches that follow, I see both favorites getting through. Yannick Hanfmann (-222) should outclass Quiroz and Gerald Melzer (-173) has a proven game in altitude, which he showed last year by making the final of the Quito Challenger tourney.
In the final match of the day, big-serving Ivo Karlovic (-176) takes on young American Ernesto Escobedo. This is a relatively good match up for Escobedo, who possesses the serve to hold with ease and enough capability as a returner to get into some of the Karlovic service games. The Croat looked sharp, though, in Melbourne so I think I’ll look elsewhere.
I like the looks of Julien Benneteau (-194) as a potential ML parlay piece against Ricardas Berankis. Benneteau proved he still has some game left in the tank after his impressive AO showing. Berankis, meanwhile, just barely edged out the World No. 896 Kenneth Raisma (7-5, 7-6) in Davis Cup over the weekend. Benneteau should see him off in front of the home crowd.
Elsewhere, Norbert Gombos (-363) looks a touch overpriced against Carlos Taberner. Granted, Taberner doesn’t have much of a track record on the surface (typically sticks to clay), but the inconsistent Gombos (who just lost last week in Rennes to Antoine Hoang at a similar price) does not warrant this much respect (or price). Still, I’m not ready to call for the Taberner upset, as I just haven’t seen enough of his game in these conditions. Later in the day, Frenchman Gillou Simon (-311) should advance to the next round against Yannick Maden. Although Maden has recently played good ball at the Challenger level.
The last match of day in Montpellier features NextGen Karen Khachanov (-141) against wily vet David Ferrer. In years past, I would favor Ferrer because of Khachanov’s inconsistency from the baseline. However, I think Khach might take a leap forward this year in that department. I’ll just be a spectator here, as I really want to see how Khachanov handles the long rallies against Ferrer. Depending on what I see early in the season, he could be someone I look to back frequently throughout 2018.
Recommendation: Nicolas Jarry +100
Opponent: Facundo Bagnis
Location: Quito, Ecuador
Projected Start: 4:30 pm ET
A great spot for the Chilean Nicolas Jarry against Facundo Bagnis. Jarry is a 6’6 prospect I’ve had my eye on. He moves really well for his size and possesses a big game off either wing. Currently sitting with a career-high ranking of 95, Jarry should add points in Quito.
Jarry won the Quito Challenger last year, showing he can handle the altitude. In fact, he took out Victor Estrella Burgos, the Tour level “King of Quito” in the semis and Gerald Melzer in the final. Conditions should suit the Chilean again on Tuesday, specifically on his serve — which should receive a boost from the thin air. I don’t expect much of a difference between these two in longer rallies — but Jarry’s bigger serve should help him get more free points.
They have only met once before, last year at the French Open. In that match, Jarry raced out to a 5-2 first set lead before Bagnis retired with an injury. At plus money, value lies with Jarry in favorable conditions in a favorable matchup. I personally make his odds -120.
Recommendation: Stefanos Tsitsipas -140
Opponent: Jérémy Chardy
Location: Montpellier, France
Surface: Indoor Hard
Projected Start: 8:00 am ET
On the surface, both players have similar games. They each have big first serves and big forehands they try to dictate play with from behind the baseline. However, they are headed in opposite directions. The 19-year old Tsitsipas has moved up the rankings, while the 30-year old Chardy has continued to decline in the late stages of his career.
Chardy has stumbled out of the gates in 2018. He withdrew from the first tournament of the season (personal reasons) and then lost in the first round at the Aussie Open in straight sets to Tennys Sandgren. Tsitsipas, on the other hand, has posted some good results at the Tour level in Doha and at the Challenger level in Quimper. They have split two previous meetings, both of which came in Brest, another indoor hard tournament in France. Tsitsipas claimed the most recent last fall (7-6, 6-4) at a similar price (-143). I think we see a similar result on Tuesday.
In his young career, Tsitsipas has posted his best results on indoor hard courts. Last year, he posted his best career result on the indoor hard courts of the ATP level tourney in Antwerp. He beat Pablo Cuevas, Ivo Karlovic, and David Goffin en route to the semis. Tsitsipas also posted an 11-4 record on indoor hard courts last year at the Challenger level.
Given the surface advantage and contrast in forms, I like Tsitsipas at anything below -145. If Chardy goes down early, he may pack it in against a motivated player looking to claw up the rankings.
Tuesday ATP Hitters
Stefanos Tsitsipas -140
Nicolas Jarry +100
*All lines pulled from Pinnacle at 1:45 am ET