Perry’s 2019 Charles Schwab Classic Betting Preview: Fade Elite Players After a Major

Perry’s 2019 Charles Schwab Classic Betting Preview: Fade Elite Players After a Major article feature image
Credit:

Joshua S. Kelly, USA Today Sports. Pictured: Ian Poulter

  • Justin Rose is the betting favorite at the 2019 Charles Schwab Classic at Colonial Golf Course.
  • Josh Perry analyzes the field and breaks down how elite players tend to disappoint the week afte a major.

I was worried that Brooks Koepka and Dustin Johnson would be the ones to ruin my outright card at the PGA Championship and that turned out to be a legitimate concern. Koepka torched the field and DJ, who gave Brooks a little run for his money on Sunday, finished second.

It wasn’t all bad news, though. Matt Wallace stayed inside the top 10 to keep us in the green at Bethpage Black.

This week we move on to one of the more traditional stops on tour at Colonial Golf Course in Fort Worth, Texas for the 2019 Charles Schwab Challenge.

The Course

Colonial isn’t a long course, checking in at around at 7,200 yards for a par 70. It tends to take the driver out of play and forces pinpoint accuracy with the irons.

We see a lot of similarity between this week and the RBC Heritage, including the plaid jacket given to the winner.

Boo Weekley has won both tournaments and guys like Zach Johnson, Brandt Snedeker, Matt Kuchar, Kevin Kisner and Jim Furyk all have a win on one of the two courses to go with a runner-up finish on the other.

You’ll notice that none of those guys are really the longest hitters, so you should be targeting players who find the fairway and hit a lot of greens without relying too much on distance this week.

The Field

For the week after a major, we’ve got a solid group here led by defending champion Justin Rose, who  opens as the +1100 favorite with Jon Rahm and Jordan Spieth close behind at +1200.

We also have Rickie Fowler (+1400), Xander Schauffele (+1600) and Francesco Molinari (+1800) all coming in below +2000.

The Favorites

I’m not looking at anyone near the top of the board after a grueling week at Bethpage. We see each year following the Masters how players who were at Augusta over the weekend didn’t really factor into winning the RBC Heritage.

This is the first time we’ve had the Colonial follow the PGA Championship, but I’m going to make an educated guess that the mental toll will be similar and the winner will be someone who didn’t make much noise at Bethpage.

There’s one problem though: This course has treated favorites well, historically.

The last five champs were under +3000. But those were all years that didn’t follow a major. The favorites can continue to dominate, but this is a completely different scenario than when they’ve entered this event in the past.

I’m going to play this the same way I would play the Heritage and if it doesn’t work out, I’ll adjust next year.

The Mid-Tier

Like usual, this is where we’ll begin the card.

As mentioned, this isn’t a course where distance is really important. The winners tend to be solid from tee-to-green with strong par-4 metrics, even without elite distance with the driver.

First up will be Ian Poulter at +4000. Poulter has played here a few times in the past and notched a couple top-10 finishes. He’s in good form this year. recording four top 25s in six events prior to Bethpage, and ranks inside the top 50 in tee-to-green and on par 4s, but isn’t in the top 100 in distance.

Next up, we’ll go Scott Piercy at +5500. His history here has been hit-and-miss, but he does have a seventh-place finish at the event. He’s also got a couple top-3 finishes prior to Bethpage, so the form is as good as ever. He’s another strong iron player who is gaining strokes in all four aspects this season.

We’ll also go with Si Woo Kim at +7000. Kim hasn’t posted good results at Colonial, but has made a playoff at the Heritage before. He also won at The Players and Sawgrass is another course where distance isn’t as important as overall tee-to-green play.

Abraham Ancer is the next guy on the list at +7500. Ancer hit a bit of a slump with the irons for awhile, but appears to be working his way back out of it. For the first time since The Players, Ancer gained ground with the approach at Bethpage. The rest of his game has been clicking, so if the irons keep trending upward he should be a good fit here.

The last guy is Sungjae Im at +9000. Im has hit a rough patch in the last month. The form has dipped and so have his odds. This is more a play on what he’s shown overall throughout the season. We’ll see if he can snap out of this funk and get back on track. If Sungjae finds the game he had two months ago, he’s a good value in this range.

Longshots

I’ll go with one guy from down the board and back Talor Gooch at 175-1. I like him more as a top-20 play when those become available, but Gooch had been solid prior to suffering a thumb injury.

He came back last week with a 13th-place finish in the Web.com event. It’s not an amazing result in a lesser field, but it shows that he should be healthy.

In his limited starts, he ranked second on Tour in strokes gained: approach. If the putter cooperates, then he’s got a chance to be lurking around the leaderboard.

The Colonial Card

  • Ian Poulter +4000 (.83 units)
  • Scott Piercy +5500 (.6 units)
  • Si Woo Kim +7000 (.47 units)
  • Abraham Ancer +7500 (.44 units)
  • Sungjae Im +9000 (.37 units)
  • Talor Gooch +17500 (.19 units)

Total Stake: 2.9 units

Season: -16.63 units

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