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Freedman’s Favorite Masters Matchups: Bet on Francesco Molinari

Credit:

Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: PGA golfer Francesco Molinari

  • Matthew Freedman continues his series featuring at least one of his favorite bets for each day of 2019.
  • On Wednesday, he looks ahead to the 2019 Masters and highlights five of his favorite head-to-head matchups.

Each day, I publish 1-2 pieces on props I like. See my master list of 2019 prop bets for more information.

In this piece, I break down some head-to-head matchups I like for the Masters (Apr. 11, 8:30 a.m. ET).

For more daily player props, follow me in The Action Network app.

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Freedman’s Favorite Masters Matchups

When I look at my past performance with PGA props, I find that I’ve been most profitable with the Majors.

There’s no telling if that trend will hold for the 2019 Masters, but there are a few reasons I think it’s easier to make money betting on props for Majors vs. an average tournament.

For one, sportsbooks post way more props for the Majors, which means that there are simply more opportunities to find exploitable bets.

Additionally, I think the average prop for a Major tends to be more inefficient. Maybe that’s because the books are releasing more props, so they’re devoting less time to making sure that any given prop is appropriately priced.

Or maybe it’s because there are more casual bettors for the Majors, and they move some lines in the wrong direction.

Regardless, I have more action on the Masters than I typically do for most tournaments. As a result, I’ll highlight more than just one head-to-head matchup in this piece.

Francesco Molinari vs. Jordan Spieth

  • Francesco Molinari: +110
  • Jordan Spieth: -130

In our 2019 Masters Betting Power Rankings, we have Molinari ranked 10.2 and Spieth, 11.3. Molinari is the higher-rated golfer according to four of our five rankers, and he also stands out in the FantasyLabs PGA Models.

Compared to Spieth, Molinari has the superior Adjusted Round Score over the long term (68.5 vs. 69.1) and short term (67.5 vs. 69.6).

I’d bet on Molinari to +100.

The Pick: Molinari (+110)

Francesco Molinari vs. Paul Casey

  • Francesco Molinari: +125
  • Paul Casey: -145

I’ll be honest: I’m more than a little invested in Molinari props for this tournament. Casey is good: We have him ranked 12.3. But only one of our five rankers has him above Molinari, who has the superior long-term marks in Adjusted Round Score (68.5 vs. 68.6), greens in regulation (68.9% vs. 68.7%) and scrambling (62.1% vs. 57.8%).

In what is close to a coin flip, I’ll take the plus odds.

I’d bet on Molinari down to +100.

The Pick: Molinari (+125)

Michael Kim vs. Trevor Immelman

  • Michael Kim: +110
  • Trevor Immelman: -130

In the spirit of openness, I’ll admit that I knew nothing about either of these golfers till I started researching for this tournament. But I prefer Kim based on what I’ve seen.

Kim has the edge in our rankings (67.3 vs. 70.0), and he has the same long-term Adjusted Round Score as Immelman (71.2) while playing against much harder competition (Field Rate: 92.4% vs. 81.1%).

I’d bet on Kim down to -110.

The Pick: Kim (+110)

Adam Long vs. Fred Couples

  • Adam Long: +140
  • Fred Couples: -160

This one isn’t even close. Not to be an agist, but Couples is almost 60 years old. I don’t see why he should be favored over a 31-year-old who won a PGA Tour event in January.

Long has the smallest of edges in ranking (67.0 vs. 67.3) but a massive edge in long-term Adjusted Round Score (70.7 vs. 71.1) when you consider the difference in competition they’ve faced (Field Rate: 74.8% vs. 39.6%).

Even if you think that Long and Couples are comparable, the positive odds easily make Long the preferable play.

I’d bet Long down to +120.

The Pick: Long (+140)

Eddie Pepperell vs. Matt Wallace

  • Eddie Pepperell: +150
  • Matt Wallace: -170

This might be my favorite prop for the whole tournament. Wallace has the slightest edge in ranking (42.8 vs. 43.5) and Adjusted Round Score in the long term (70.0 vs. 70.1), but in their recent form they are identical (67.8). And Pepperell has a lower percentage of long-term missed cuts (17% vs. 18%).

In what looks like a 50/50 proposition, +150 is a gift.

I’d bet Pepperell down to +115.


Matthew Freedman is the Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs. He has a dog and sometimes a British accent. In Cedar Rapids, Iowa, he’s known only as The Labyrinthian.

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