Adon: 5 Proven Longshots Who Can Contend at Pebble Beach

Jun 13, 2019 07:53 AM EDT

Caylor Arnold-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Martin Kaymer

  • Backing longshots to win the U.S. Open is usually a dicey proposition, but Pebble Beach sets up perfectly for some middle-of-the-pack golfers to contend.
  • Adon analyzes five longshots who are a good fit for the shorter course and offer betting value in both the outright and top-20 markets.

Now I know what everybody is thinking after reading this headline: This is the U.S. Open. This is Pebble Beach. This is Elite SZN. While I agree that’s generally the case at this event — and I have a heavy stake on one of the Big Cats near the top of the odds market — if there ever was a U.S. Open course that could give hope to the middle of the field, Pebble Beach is the one.

You can’t bully Pebble Beach with driver like the world’s best were able to do at the last few U.S. Opens, which is great news for both gamblers and golf purists alike.

The five longshots that I have wagered on below are each proven closers who have combined to win three majors, two Players Championships and 25 worldwide events across the PGA and European Tours!

In addition to outrights, I will have a top-20 wager on each of these golfers at good odds since all five are listed at 100-1+ odds to win. These top-20 bets are musts with longshot outright bets if you’re looking to sustain your bankroll. Just look back at my PGA Championship longshots article, which didn’t cash an outright winner but featured Shane Lowry, who finished eighth. If you placed top-10 and/or top-20 wagers on Lowry as I advised, you ended that week in good shape.

Speaking of Lowry, he’s a good example of why you should be sure to follow me on Twitter, in addition to reading me here. Last Thursday, after a hot start from Lowry at the RBC Canadian Open, I tweeted that I bet the Irishman at 125-1 odds for the U.S. Open.

He went on to finish second in Canada and his odds have shortened to 50-1. Since this article is meant to highlight guys I like at 100-1 odds or higher, I haven’t included him below.

All odds as of Tuesday evening.

Martin Kaymer

Odds to win: 100-1

Don’t look now, but we could be in the midst of a career renaissance for this two-time major champion. Kaymer now has two top-10 finishes in his past four starts and was cruising at the Memorial a few weeks ago, starting the final round with a two-shot lead, before eventually finishing third.

It’s easy to forget, but Kaymer was once the No. 1 player in the world, and his 2014 U.S. Open victory — a wire-to-wire, eight-shot win — was one of the most impressive major performances in history. Kaymer also finished in eighth place the last time the U.S. Open was held at Pebble in 2010. This is our mulligan and I will not miss out on Kaymer at these odds.

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