Our Favorite Props Picks and Matchup Bets for the 2020 RSM Classic at Sea Island
Carmen Mandato/Getty Images. Pictured: J.T. Poston
- The 2020/21 PGA TOUR season heads to Sea Island Golf Course this week for the 2020 RSM Classic.
- Webb Simpson, Tyrrell Hatton and Tommy Fleetwood headline a relatively deep field that also features a few up-and-comers like Doc Redman and Sebastian Munoz.
- Check out who were backing with our favorite matchup bets and props for this week:
What Masters hangover?
The PGA TOUR rolls into Sea Island this week for the 2020 RSM Classic. The tournament features a pretty strong field when you consider that we just wrapped things up at Augusta last weekend.
The RSM Classic may not have the same glitz, glamour and pageantry that the Masters has, but at GolfBet we love all tournaments equally because the money you win on a bet at Sea Island is just as green as the scratch you won at Augusta National.
Here are our favorite matchup bets and props for the 2020 RSM Classic:
J.T. Poston (+100) over Chez Reavie
There are some who might jump off the Poston bandwagon after last week’s MC in his first career Masters start, but that shouldn’t take any shine off the fact that he finished top-30 in three of his previous four starts before that, often displaying solid ball-striking numbers. He was also T-14 at this event last year, on a course which should suit his skillset.
Meanwhile, Reavie’s results have been a mixed bag lately. He hasn’t played this event since 2016 and his previous results are a meager MC-33. I’ll save my Reavie plays until the PGA TOUR gets back to the West Coast next year.
Shane Lowry (-110) over Justin Rose
Lowry has finished ahead of Rose in three of their last four starts. Rose nudged past Lowry by a stroke last week at the Masters, but he has a much better track record at Augusta than Lowry and course knowledge is one of the biggest benefits there, so I won’t hold that against Shane too much.
Neither Lowry nor Rose has played this event before, so I’d expect Lowry’s overall form to be enough to stay in front of Rose this week.
Brian Harman (+100) over Corey Conners
I imagine Conners will be popular this week due to his strong recent play, but I don’t love the course fit for him. With the fairway easy to find and distance not extremely important this week, putting will be much more of a factor than usual.
Looking at past winners here, you most likely will need to be very good with the flat stick to win. Conners has lost strokes putting in seven of his past 10 starts, and is a historically very poor putter.
Harman on the other hand, is a former Georgia Bulldog who has gained strokes putting in eight of his past 10 starts. Harman is a much better course fit for Sea Island than Conners.
Sebastian Munoz (-110) over Joaquin Niemann
Munoz is my favorite outright bet this week and I’m happy to back him in this matchup because of his game and form, as well as the unknowns surrounding Joaquin Niemann coming off his positive COVID test.
Niemann undoubtedly had to fully quarantine over the last two weeks and may have some rust to shake off this week, so I simply don’t see this as the toss-up matchup that the odds imply, and really like this spot for Sebastian Munoz.
Webb Simpson Top-5 Finish (+200)
What a boring pick. I mean, I’m taking the tourney favorite here — and I’m not even taking him to win. It might be ultra-conservative, but Simpson has finished 2nd and 3rd here the past two years and he’s fresh off a T-10 at an Augusta National course that shouldn’t have suited his game whatsoever.
Webb tends to play extraordinarily well on tracks that suit his game and this one might be in his own personal top-three.
Russell Henley Top-20 Finish (+165)
Henley is a perfect fit for this course and ran off three straight top-10 at Sea Island from 2014-2016.
Henley’s ball-striking has been as good as anyone on TOUR the past few months, but his putter has surprisingly let him down.
Henley has been a great putter throughout his career and that’s especially true on Bermudagrass. I expect Henley to putt around field average and the ball-striking to carry him to another solid finish this week.
Doc Redman Top-10 Finish (+450)
I have been hesitant to bet Doc lately due to his understandably inflated pricing, but this week his odds are right around where I believe they should be in a field like this.
Redman has the perfect skillset to contend at Sea Island. He ranks eighth in this field in fairways gained, which is a statistic that has a strong correlation with the winners of the RSM Classic.
At first glance, you would think his 61st-place finish in his most recent start at the Houston Open is a cause for concern. However, both of his best recent performances have come off of a poor start the week before including: 4th at Bermuda (MC previous start) and 3rd at Safeway (MC previous start).
Statistically, Redman’s best putting surface is Bermudagrass and he has had strong recent results on similar tracks (Bermuda, Safeway, Wyndham). There is value to be had this week by getting back in on Redman.
Matthew NeSmith Top-20 Finish (+550)
It may be a bit concerning to see Matthew NeSmith coming into the RSM Classic off of a missed cut, but looking closer he hit the ball really well in Houston, gaining 6.5 strokes ball-striking on the week, but lost it all and then some on and around the greens.
I am willing to give him a pass on that aspect of his game as he comes into familiar courses at Sea Island Resort where he finished 14th last year.
A Top-20 certainly isn’t too much to ask for the South Carolina product who already has two of those to his credit this season.