2021 WGC-Workday Championship Betting Picks: Our Favorite Props and Matchup Bets at The Concession
Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images. Pictured: Gary Woodland
Another week, another star-studded field for bettors to sink their teeth into.
The top-15 players in the world will all be in Bradenton, Fla. to take on the relatively unknown Concession Golf Course for the 2021 WGC-Workday Championship. Dustin Johnson is once again the betting favorite, but there is some serious firepower all over the board for this event.
Here are our favorite props and matchups for the WGC-Workday Championship:
Erik van Rooyen Top-40 Finish (+100)
It’s been a brutal beginning to the year for EVR, who went MC-56th-MC-MC in his first four starts. Those results, however, aren’t emblematic of his talent, as this is a guy with some big-time game who (it appears) simply might not love playing on the West Coast.
Last year, he was T-3 at this event and while the move from Chapultapec to Concession suggests on the surface that it has no relevance, I’d argue that playing so well in a WGC against the world’s best players should give him the confidence to replicate that performance.
Not that I’m going so far after such a miserable start, but I do think that in a 72-man field, EVR can at least finish in the top half to cash this admittedly modest play.
Will Zalatoris Top-10 Finish
Every time I get away from the Will Zalatoris hype train, he reels me right back in. I was off and away from him as he made his debut at Riviera Country Club last week, only to find myself glued to his charge up the leaderboard in the final round.
He would ultimately finish 15th, but the strength of his game, his irons, were back in great form. He would gain more than three shots on the field on approach and as I’ve noted, that is my main stat target this week at The Concession.
Willy Z finally gets a week where he is on a level playing field with the rest of his competitors as no one has really seen this course in tournament conditions, and I think his skillset will matchup well for a Top-10 (or better) this week in his first WGC.
Viktor Hovland Top-5 Finish (+500)
Hovland’s recent form is undeniable as he continues to rack up incredible ball-striking performances. He has finished fifth, second and T6 in his his last three starts (Genesis, Farmers, Saudi International) and in his last two outings he’s gained over 7 strokes tee-to-green, including 5.4 and 4.1 strokes on approach respectively.
Recent form has historically been a strong indicator of WGC results and no one is hotter than Viktor Hovland at the moment. I will be betting on his outright winner odds as well this week (+2300).
Justin Thomas Top-10 Finish (+188)
I am fully expecting a bounce-back effort from JT this week after his forgettable performance at Riviera. The good news is that it was mainly the putting that did him in last week, as he lost 5.8 strokes in his two rounds.
We know that when JT comes to play he’s always near the top of the leaderboard and I’ll be trusting his long term form (especially in WGCs) in this spot. Getting close to 2/1 in a 72-man field on a player of his caliber is too good to pass up.
Gary Woodland (+100) vs. Brendon Todd
If we look only at the results for Woodland last week, it doesn’t look great, as a pair of 73s left him four shots off the wrong side of the cut line. Look closer at the stats, though, and we’ll find that he actually hit the ball really well from tee to green, but couldn’t get a putt to sniff the hole on those poa annua greens.
My guess is that Woodland gladly hopped on a plane back to his adopted home state of Florida and can’t wait to get back on Bermuda surfaces. At even-money, I like his chances of keeping up that solid ball-striking and making a few more putts against Todd.
Tommy Fleetwood (-120) over Jason Kokrak
I feel like we’re getting some value here on Tommy. He hasn’t played in the US in 2021, while Kokrak seems to be a part of the coverage consistently. But Fleetwood has been playing fine in Europe and he’s been gaining strokes across all four categories in the early part of the season.
Meanwhile, Kokrak has been shaky with his approach. He’s been at, or below, field average in four of his last five events. Iron play is usually paramount at Nicklaus courses, so I’ll lay a little juice with the better player on a course where he should be the better fit.
Marc Leishman (+155) over Hideki Matsuyama
I’m taking a bit of a hunch here but I really like the odds that Leishman gets in this spot against a struggling Matsuyama.
We know that Leishman has a strong track record around Memorial, and he has been playing some good golf in recent weeks, especially with his irons. He’s gained more than a stroke on approach in each of his first four tournaments of the year, and now gets to go to his preferred Bermudagrass putting surfaces.
Hideki comes in on the opposite end of the spectrum, having lost strokes to the field with his ball striking in two of his last three tournaments. He’s usually a player that can rely on his tee-to-green game and find enough in those weeks on the greens to finish well, but neither is there right now.
I’ll happily take the plus-money on Leishman in this matchup as he appears to be the one with his game heading in the right direction.
Marc Leishman (+105) vs. Matthew Wolff
Leishman has been extremely consistent in 2021 with finishes of 24-4-18-32 in his four starts. In all four of those outings, the Aussie has gained strokes on approach and I think that should be the most important statistic this week. Leishman also loves Florida golf as evidenced by his 2017 victory at Bay Hill and his strong Bermuda putting statistics.
Wolff, on the other hand, has been wildly inconsistent as of late. He has lost strokes tee-to-green in each of his past two starts and lost 3.5 strokes off the tee at Genesis, which is usually the strength of his game.
I’ll take the slight underdog who is playing vastly superior golf than his opponent in this matchup.
Daniel Berger (+100) vs. Tony Finau
Finau has been playing incredibly, but he’s now finished in second place in three consecutive tournaments and is probably due for some regression. Berger is a Florida guy and should feel right at home on the Bermuda greens this week. He took the week off to celebrate his win at Pebble and should be ready to go to begin the Florida Swing. I think Finau is being over bet by the public and makes for a strong fade in this spot.