2021 World Wide Technology Championship at Mayakoba: 3 Matchup Picks With Clear Betting Value
Cliff Hawkins/Getty Images. Pictured: Mito Pereira.
Every week, I use Strokes Gained data, course history and a multitude of other data points to handicap the matchups offered by both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Using a computer simulation tool I built from scratch, I simulate each available matchup 10,000 times to determine each golfer’s probability of winning. Using that winning percentage, I am able to set my own line for every matchup, and compare it against what the books are offering.
The goal is to find value in the current betting lines and give ourselves a small edge over and over to churn out profit throughout the course of the year. I picked matchups at a 61% clip for the 2020-21 PGA TOUR season and hope to continue that momentum this season.
Below, I have outlined the matchups that have shown the most value in my simulations this week for the World Wide Technology Championship. For every matchup I will provide the current line, what my simulations set the line at, and why I believe it is a profitable bet.
This week, every matchup is via DraftKings. Let’s get to it!
Mito Pereira (+100) over Emiliano Grillo
My line: -138
There’s some solid value on the current line as I make Mito a favorite in this one.
Among players in the field, Pereira ranks first in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee and Approach over the last 12 rounds. Over the last 24 rounds, he’s sixth in Strokes Gained Off-the-Tee and second on Approach. Grillo, meanwhile, is 13th Off-the-Tee and 45th on Approach.
Pereira beats Grillo in every ball-striking statistic over both timeframes, as well. There’s a clear edge in form in this matchup.
Both players are bad putters, so it’s ball striking that provides the difference in this matchup. There’s a superior player on that front, so we’ll run with Mito at a plus number this week in Playa del Carmen.
Tyrrell Hatton (-110) over Billy Horschel
My line: -135
Over the last 24 rounds among players in this field, Tyrrell Hatton ranks 20th in Strokes Gained: Approach and eighth Tee-to-Green. Horschel, meanwhile, has struggled on TOUR, ranking 84th and 89th in those metrics.
Both players have been playing inconsistently of late, but as I mentioned in the previous matchup, I’ll always back the player who relies on ball striking over the one who needs his putter to be hot to get a result.
Kevin Streelman (-110) over Brendon Todd
My line: -130
This one isn’t very close.
Kevin Streelman has made seven straight cuts, while Todd has missed five of his last eight.
In every dataset I look at, Streelman beats Todd in every statistical category outside of Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green and Putting, both of which are volatile stats.
The only concern is that Todd has a strong history here, with a win and eighth-place finish over the last two years at Mayakoba.
But again, it’s back to ball striking. Streelman has the significant edge there over Todd, who has gained a total of 32.1 strokes in his career on the field in his 201 career tournaments. Streelman? He’s gained 361 strokes over 301 tournaments.
In this pick’em, Streelman provides the clear advantage.