2022 Butterfield Bermuda Championship Expert Picks & Predictions: 6 Best Bets for Michael Gligic, Stephan Jaeger, Brice Garnett & More
Via James Gilbert/Getty Images. Pictured: Michael Gligic of Canada walks on the 9th green during the third round of the Korn Ferry Tour Championship presented by United Leasing and Financing at Victoria National Golf Club on September 03, 2022 in Newburgh, Indiana.
The PGA TOUR heads to Southampton, Bermuda this week for the Butterfield Bermuda Championship. After we saw Rory McIlroy reclaim the No. 1 spot in the Official World Golf Ranking with a win at THE CJ CUP in a field featuring 15 of the top 20 players in the world, 48th-ranked Seamus Power is the highest ranked player this week. This means there's value to be found farther down the board without star power at the top.
Our analysts have found six best bets for the Butterfield Bermuda Championship this week, including five outright plays and one exotic bet. Check out their picks and analysis below.
Brice Garnett +10000 (DraftKings)
Jason Sobel: Before I tell you about Garnett, here are a few things to think about when it comes to outright bets this week.
First, this is not only a great week to jump on some big prices pre-tourney, but during the event as well – especially entering Sunday’s final round. The first three rounds are now forecasted to feature some rainy and breezy conditions, but Sunday is predicted to see 35 mph gusts, which could turn this leaderboard upside down. We witnessed this exact scenario just a year ago, when Taylor Pendrith entered the final day with a three-shot lead and wound up losing by three. Keep this in mind later in the week.
Second, our thought process toward this one should be more mutual fund than blue-chip stock. If you had Rory McIlroy at last week’s CJ CUP, congratulations. Chances are, you didn’t also play 5-6 other outrights. Instead, you paid up for the blue-chipper, and he paid off. I think this week’s strategy is to look at your outrights as more of a portfolio, a group of investments which could offer a nice ROI.
Or in other terms, you probably wouldn’t walk into a convenience store and purchase a single lottery ticket; you’d get a few of ‘em to at least give yourself a few chances. Same thing here.
Okay, now let’s get to Garnett, who serves the quizzical niche of playing his best golf in tropical locales against inferior fields. (Yes, that’s really a thing.) His lone PGA TOUR victory came at the Corales Puntacana event in 2018, where he also has a ninth-place finish. He owns four results of 11th or better at Mayakoba and two inside the top seven in Puerto Rico.
His only previous start in Bermuda came two years ago, when he posted a final-round 65 to finish T-21. Again, this is hardly one of those outright picks where I’m suggesting you take out a second mortgage on Garnett. Instead, I like him to start a card which should include plenty of players with some bigger odds. Among the others I also like: Nick Taylor, Callum Tarren, Chesson Hadley and Sam Ryder.
Kevin Yu +9000 (bet365)
Chris Murphy: This is a good week to throw some darts at talent at longer numbers. With the top of the field being weaker, there is a great opportunity to see some of these longshots contend for the victory.
Kevin Yu finished inside the top 25 last year on the Korn Ferry Tour to earn his promotion, but he also stepped up in a similar PGA TOUR event in the spring when he finished T7 at the Puerto Rico Open. He has since made the cut in all three of his PGA TOUR appearances this fall with a top 20 coming at the Shriners. and in all three tournaments he gained at least four shots on the field with his ball striking. He’s struck it really well but found trouble on the greens.
I am hopeful the slower putting surfaces may help him find something on the greens this week in Bermuda, and at +8000 we are getting solid value to take that shot.
Michael Gligic +170 Top Canadian (bet365)
Spencer Aguiar: With little value in the head-to-head market, I will get cute and grab Michael Gligic +170 to be the Top Canadian against Nick Taylor and David Hearn. These are not parts of the board I typically will rush to for my best bet, but I like the value on the 33-year-old since my model believes Gligic is the rightful favorite in this three-way matchup.
For starters, we are naturally getting some inflation on Gligic because of Hearn's course history after seeing him produce a 39th, eighth and eighth in his three years at the track, but I am not as bullish on his current potential as some in the space, as his recent form sees him as a golfer ranked 1,343rd in the world.
Hearn has struggled to make cuts on the Korn Ferry Tour and failed to post a top 35 in anything since the Astara Golf Championship in February earlier this season.
On the other hand, Taylor consistently has remained an overvalued commodity for me these past few weeks, showing more as a mid-end talent in a lot of these fields, even though the price tag has consistently yielded top-25 expectations on the betting board.
I probably do like his upside this week more than usual since the history he has provided on short courses is rather pronounced, but Gligic is one of the more underrated options for me this week, which we see by him ranking first in this field for Ball Striking + Weighted Proximity and landing as one of only three players to generate top-30 marks in par 3, par 4 and par 5 totals during my recalculated portion of the model.
My favorite way to play this is to take Gligic to come 52nd or better on a site like bet365 for around 0.60 units and merge it in with a half unit on this three-way wager above. I will number-grab this situation to try and jump ahead of the market on a player who is being overlooked, according to my math.
Akshay Bhatia +25000 (DraftKings)
Matt Vincenzi: While he had an up-and-down season last year on the Korn Ferry Tour, I still believe Akshay Bhatia is a future star. Still just 20 years old, the North Carolina native won the 2019 Jones Cup, was the top ranked junior in the country and was the first high-schooler ever to become a member of the winning United States Walker Cup team in 2019.
He managed to win his first start on the KFT last year at the Bahamas Great Exuma Classic at Sandals Emerald Bay. His ability to win on a coastal resort course that can play pretty difficult should aid him in his efforts to contend in Bermuda.
Stephan Jaeger +3700 (FanDuel)
Derek Farnsworth: This is one of those courses that negates really good off the tee play. The course measures only 6,800 yards, and a lot of that length is hidden in three of the par 3s that measure over 215 yards. All three of the par 5s are reachable in two, and eight of the par 4s measure fewer than 420 yards.
Distance has not played a factor in determining a winner, and that’s pretty clear when you consider the fact that Brendon Todd and Brian Gay have won this event in two of the last three years. I mention all of this because the biggest weakness for Jaeger has been off the tee. He’s certainly improving in that area, but I’m sure he’ll be relieved to play a course where he doesn’t need to drive it perfectly to contend.
He’s very good with the rest of the clubs in his bag. He can get red-hot with his irons (has gained over four strokes on approach five different times since the start of May), he’s elite around the greens, and he’s had very good putting splits on bermuda greens over the last two seasons.
The forecast looks awfully windy on Friday and Saturday, which could be beneficial for Jaeger given the fact that his strengths should hold up in the wind (iron play and short game). If he can avoid that blow up round that seems to be haunting him, I like his chances to contend this week.
Robby Shelton +4000 (DraftKings)
Landon Silinsky: Robby Shelton has been tearing up the Korn Ferry Tour this season, having already posted two wins and an additional runner up finish since the middle of June. While this event is technically a PGA TOUR event, the field is as weak as we’re going to see all season, hence why Shelton is 40/1.
With off the tee play being a bit mitigated due to how short Port Royal is, both approach and around-the-green play will be paramount. This is great news for Shelton because he ranks 21st in this field in SG: Approach and 11th in SG: Around the Green over his past 12 rounds.
He’s had a nice fall swing so far as well, coming off a T15 at the Shriners, which was on the heels of a T21 at the Fortinet. He’s firing on all the cylinders that matter for this event, and I like chancing him at these odds.
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