Farmers Insurance Open: How to Bet the Fourth Round

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The leaderboard at the Farmers Insurance Open got a major shakeup on Saturday.

Jon Rahm and Tony Finau sat 1-2 in the betting odds after the first two rounds, but an over par round from each sent them down the board.

Alex Noren replaced the pair as the favorite at +250 following a round of 3-under 69. Noren was available at 16-1 yesterday, and he was my pick for anyone who wanted to jump in at the halfway point. 5Dimes usually offers a field bet versus the 54 hole leader, which in this case would be in the -325 or -350 range if you’re looking for a hedge option.

After Noren, Ryan Palmer is in second place and available at +650. Jason Day and Justin Rose are next at on the odds sheet at +700 and +800. Both Day and Rose are three shots behind Noren entering the final round.

If you’re looking for a longer shot going into the final round, Michael Kim at 25-1 or Luke List at 28-1 could be worth a gamble. Kim grew up playing Torrey Pines, and at just two shots back, he’s got the local narrative on his side. List is the prototypical bomber who grades out well for this course. His putter has always held him back, but if the flat stick can warm up for just one round, he’s capable of making a charge from three shots back.


Tiger Woods shot his best round of the tournament with a 2-under par 70 on Saturday, but it’s clear that there’s still work to be done. Tiger has really struggled to find the fairway or greens with any consistency. Woods lost a little over two shots to the field in the ball striking categories, but his chipping and putter were off the charts. He gained over four strokes with his short game, but that sort of performance is usually tough to repeat. So I’m going to back Patrick Cantlay against him at -105. This was a lean yesterday that wouldn’t have worked out, but Cantlay has just been better tee to green this week. And after three rounds of grinding, there may be a little added fatigue for Tiger.

I’m not adding List to win, but I will take a flier on him winning his group over Tony Finau and Marc Leishman at +250. Leishman and Finau are the better players, but List is having the better week tee to green. As a decent sized underdog, I think he’s worth a play.

Joshua has spent the last five years writing about sports and the last 10 years betting them, mostly on golf. He’s one of approximately five people who will watch the PGA over the NFL in November. Follow him on Twitter @JoshuaPerry22