LIV Las Vegas Picks & Betting Preview: Brooks Koepka & Dustin Johnson

LIV Golf heads to Las Vegas for its second event of the 2024 season. Coincidence? Probably not. LIV hopes to get as many eyes on its product as possible while in Vegas during the Super Bowl LVIII and while the PGA Tour is between Signature Events.

Las Vegas Country Club is the host course this week and is just over 7,200 yards as a par-72. That is on the shorter side and should be fairly gettable this week. The course features tree-lined fairways and is heavily bunkered, so we will see a very similar style of golf to what we saw at Mayakoba last week as El Camaleón was short, narrow and tree-lined as well.

Las Vegas Country Club hosted the Las Vegas Invitational from 1983 to 1991. A familiar golfer by the name of Greg Norman won here in 1986 at -27. From 1983-1991, the average winning score was -21 over four rounds of golf. LIV will play three rounds, and LVCC will yield plenty of birdies.

In terms of handicapping this event, we only have one event of data to lean on from this year. Besides last week's event, Birdie Average from last season will be important to see which golfers scored the best in easier conditions.

Key LIV Las Vegas Metrics

Birdie Average

Last week on LIV Golf, many went low, but some avoided more mistakes than others. Below is a list of the top birdie-makers in order from last week at LIV Mayakoba.

• 5.67 Birdies Per Round: Joaquin Niemann, Sebastian Muñoz
• 5.33 Birdies Per Round: Jon Rahm, Caleb Surratt, Cam Smith, Sergio Garcia
• 5.00 Birdies Per Round: Dustin Johnson, Tyrrell Hatton, Louis Oosthuizen

It is interesting seeing Muñoz tied with Niemann for the most birdies in last week's event. Niemann went on to win that event at -12, but Muñoz finished all the way back at -5. That is a massive difference and goes to show how many mistakes Munoz made. That completely checks out to his style of play as he was one of the more aggressive players while on the PGA Tour.

Caleb Surratt had a great showing in his LIV Golf debut. The 19-year-old finished at -5 as well but helped captain John Rahm's Legion XIII win the team crown.

Seeing Dustin Johnson pop with five birdies per round is really enticing. He finished in a tie for fifth and does not seem far off.

Greens In Regulation 

Pinpointing the players who hit the most greens in regulation is always a great predictive metric. Hitting greens leads to birdie chances, and that is clearly important at Las Vegas Country Club as the golfers will need to take it low to contend this week. Below are the players who hit the most greens in regulation at LIV Mayakoba last week.

• 75.93%: Joaquin Niemann
• 74.07%: Jon Rahm, Sergio Garcia
• 72.22%: Paul Casey
• 70.37%: Kalle Samooja, Brooks Koepka, Sebastian Muñoz

Clearly, leading the event in birdies and greens in regulation is a great formula, and that is what Niemann did en route to his win last week.

Muñoz was tied for first in birdies and also in the top five in greens in regulation, this goes to show the few mistakes he did make were very costly. Hitting the ball this well and making so many birdies should not have led him to be seven shots off of Niemann's pace.

LIV Las Vegas Outright Picks

I am hearing a ton of buzz that the "big dogs" will not be focused this week as they will be partying on the Vegas strip and getting ready for the Super Bowl. While that may be true, how cool would it be to pull up to your super bowl party with a LIV Vegas trophy and a few million added to your bank account? The best players are here to win, and that is the route we will go this week.

Brooks Koepka +1400 (FanDuel)

Koepka was among the top five in greens in regulation and also led the field in fairways gained at LIV Mayakoba. With the amount of birdies needed this week, playing out of the fairway will be important. Koepka always brings his best when the lights are brightest, and they sure will be shining in Vegas.

This is a good number on a winner for his talent in this spot. Look for Koepka to get into the mix this weekend at Las Vegas Country Club.

Dustin Johnson +1600 (BetRivers)

Johnson made a ton of birdies last week, which is important heading into this week in Vegas. If you know anything about DJ, he loves to party, and that should be enough motivation to get out there and play his best golf.

All jokes aside, Johnson has excelled in easier scoring conditions during his time with LIV Golf. His number is starting to drift, which means it is a great time to buy him at a bit of a low point. He has won once in each of his two years on LIV, both times in the United States. Vegas is a great venue for DJ to notch his third LIV Golf win in three years.