2024 WM Phoenix Open Best Bets: Expert Picks for Scottie Scheffler & More

2024 WM Phoenix Open Best Bets: Expert Picks for Scottie Scheffler & More article feature image

Via Getty Images/Action Network Design. Pictured (left to right): Scottie Scheffler, Billy Horschel & Jhonattan Vegas.

Here's everything you need to know about 2024 WM Phoenix Open Best Bets and expert picks for the PGA Tour's sixth event of 2024 at TPC Scottsdale.

Jason Sobel, Spencer Aguiar and Matt Gannon have picks for Billy Horschel, Scottie Scheffler, Jhonattan Vegas and more as we break down our 2024 WM Phoenix Open Best Bets.

2024 WM Phoenix Open Best Bets & Expert Picks

Jason Sobel: Billy Horschel Top 20 +375 (bet365)

I almost listed Billy Horschel as my favorite longshot, but at the same 150/1 opening outright number as Thomas Detry and without the recent form, I pushed him down to this category, though he’ll still likely make my outright card, as well.

He’s finished in the top 10 in two of the last four years and three times overall in Scottsdale. This is going to be a nice bounce-back season for Billy Ho – the type of campaign where we’ll see him climb back into the Signature Events soon enough – and it could all start here.

If you want other options in this range, Adam Schenk, Nick Hardy, Beau Hossler and Kevin Yu should each have some value.

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Spencer Aguiar: Jhonattan Vegas Top 10 +1100 (BetRivers)

With limited intrigue in the head-to-head market this week, which is unusual, I am going to shoot for the moon and grab Jhonattan Vegas at +1100 to land a top-20 finish at BetRivers.

Vegas' three missed cuts to begin the year might not be what they seem on paper because he only needed one or two things to go differently to generate a much different result.

This is a dart-throw wager for a reason, but Vegas' upside is hard to ignore in my model. He is the most significant climber in my model when comparing recent tee-to-green data for TPC Scottsdale versus his baseline projection elsewhere. That was the same answer that pushed me to bet Wyndham Clark at 100-1 last week.

While this is an entirely different wager since the upside doesn't quite match in both situations and Vegas' floor is lower, there remain optimistic traits for Vegas on a betting board where I am not looking for much exposure.

If you want a safer matchup bet, Corey Conners at -110 over Adam Hadwin would be my additional route for this section.

Matt Gannon: Scottie Scheffler Top 10 -143 (bet365)

Laying juice on a golf bet? Crazy stuff. With the recent withdrawals by Viktor Hovland and Xander Schauffele, Scheffler elevates his floor to another level in this field.

Aside from that, there is not a better golf course for Scheffler on the entire PGA Tour. It is no surprise he has gone 7th-Win-Win in his last three starts at this event. He is a tee-to-green freak and absolutely laps this field in every ball-striking category. The Longhorn will surely find himself in the mix come Sunday, and this top-10 bet should not even be in question.

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2024 WM Phoenix Open Expert Picks, Fades

Favorites We’re Backing

Best Long Shot

  • Sobel: Thomas Detry
  • Aguiar: Davis Thompson
  • Gannon: Keith Mitchell

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Biggest Bust

  • Sobel: Hideki Matsuyama
  • Aguiar: Thomas Detry
  • Gannon: J.T. Poston

Contrarian Player To Target

  • Sobel: Rickie Fowler
  • Aguiar: Adam Svensson
  • Gannon: Cameron Young

Trend That Guides Your 2024 WM Phoenix Open Betting Strategy

Aguiar: How aggressive can golfers get? Not Draymond Green's level of aggression by randomly kicking players during a play, but can golfers go for the green when push comes to shove and be willing to take on the water?

Golfers who have historically placed in the top 50 of my model in aggression have won this title, which presents an intriguing betting board if we can remove a few golfers who may be safer commodities than those with tournament-winning potential.

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Gannon: Week in week out, ball-striking is an important stat to key on. Finding golfers who are trending in the right direction in terms of ball-striking is always the key to success, but this week is a tad different.

I am keying in on the golfers who have the unique skill set of elite driving with an elite short game. TPC Scottsdale rewards the longest and straightest golfers off the tee, but the course also has complex areas around the green.

Before Scheffler became a generational ball-striker, he was an elite driver with an elite short game. It is no surprise why he has had so much success at TPC Scottsdale, and dialing in on the golfers who check these two boxes is key.

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