Koerner’s Masters Prop Betting Simulator: Tiger Woods Bets Offering Lots of Value

Apr 11, 2019 10:02 PM EDT
Credit:

Rob Schumacher-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Tiger Woods

  • Sean Koerner built a Masters Simulator, which enables him to find "true odds" for any prop posted in the marketplace.
  • He picks out the props offering the most value, including a few involving Tiger Woods that offer a significant edge.

Before we get down to business, I’ll answer your first question off the top: Yes, I even dabble in a little golf. After all, who can resist betting on the Masters?

We don’t just want to be throwing darts, though, so I decided to build a Masters Prop Betting Simulator, which runs through the entire tournament 10,000 times and allows me to pull “true odds” for literally any type of prop offered.

This particular sim was set up via reverse engineering the current outright betting market. My thinking here is to leverage the highest-volume market — and in turn, the sharpest — to find value in some much more exploitable exotics.

Let’s run through the props offering the biggest edges.

Important note: I’ll be adding new props to this article after it’s initially published and more bets post, so be sure to check back often on Wednesday thru Thursday morning.


Worst 18-hole score

Under 84.5 (-135)
Over 82.5 (-265)

With a two books offering different numbers/prices, this is a clear opportunity to try to middle.

My simulation is giving the true odds for Under 84.5 at -352 and the Over 82.5 at -333. Based on those numbers, it should be pretty clear that there’s more value on the Under 84.5 (-135), so I’d advocate for placing a 2x larger bet on that compared to the Over.

My numbers say there’s ~55% chance we get either 83 or 84 as the highest score, in which case we’d win both bets.

Looking at the past five years of data, the highest scores have been: 86, 83, 85, 91, 85.

The 91 and 85 from 2014 and 2015 both belong to Ben Crenshaw, who decided to retire from his lifetime exemption into the Masters after 2015. If you removed him from those years, the low scores would have been 85 and 84. The 85 from 2016 belonged to Kevin Na, which came during a Round 3 implosion. If you removed that, the high score would have been 83.

I’m not merely manipulating data to prove a specific point. Part of analyzing data in order to predict future outcomes is to put it into context and see how things may have changed if certain variables go differently this time around.

This prop will likely come down to whether or not an amateur or a lifetime-exempt former winner implodes in a given round. With Ben Crenshaw out of the mix, an 83 and 84 — that would be a score of +11 or +12 — seems more likely than years past.

Here is the exact percentage breakdown I have for the highest 18-hole score for this year, according to my simulations:


Tiger Woods Round 1 score

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model helps you find edges when betting moneylines and over/unders for the full game
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