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Sean Koerner's Picks
Today
K.Lacy u83.5 Rush Yds-115
MIA
31
27
MISS
0.58u
FINAL 1/09
Not only is this a brutal matchup against an elite Miami run defense, but it’s also a game where Ole Miss are 3.5 point dogs which means they could trail at a rate way higher than their season long rate (which would likely lower their rush volume overall. Projecting him closer to 17.5 rush att and closer to a median of 72.5 yards with around a 62% chance to stay under 83.5
188
Pending
D.Adams u4.5 Recs-125
LA
@
CAR
0.63u
01/10 9:30 PM
Adams is expected to return from a hamstring injury that’s kept him out a few games now. I’m assuming they were playing it safe and that he’s closer to 100% with a low chance of a setback, but there’s still a chance he could be limited. My projection is assuming he steps right back into his full-time role at full health, so any sort of limitation due to the hamstring only helps favor the under here.
This is also an odd matchup where you have arguably the best team facing one of the worst playoff teams (ever) as 10-point road favorites. I do think the Rams win this one with ease, and it’s a great matchup for them on the ground with Kyren Williams and Blake Corum. It’s also a great matchup for Puka Nacua and the TE group, as the Panthers have struggled against WR1s and TEs this season.
Davante tends to see a high % of his targets either downfield or in the end zone, which means anytime he does haul in a pass it has a massive impact on the game and often sets up the Rams to play with the lead and lean more run heavy. In a sense, every catch he makes can actually hurt his rest-of-game projection, which is a sneaky reason I like the under here.
There’s also a chance we see some rain or wind in Carolina. Probably not enough to materially impact play, but it’s still a downgrade compared to playing indoors in LA and dings Adams slightly. We also saw Tyler Higbee return last week, which makes the TE group more likely to eat into Adams’ target share.
All of this has me projecting him closer to 4.1 receptions with around a 60% chance to stay under 4.5. I have zero interest in fading his yardage or TD markets. I’m specifically fading him in this market. And again, this projection assumes he’s fully healthy and back to his normal role, so any limitations at all only add more hidden value to the under.
195
L.Musgrave u2.5 Recs-108
GB
@
CHI
0.54u
01/11 1:00 AM
When it comes to the Packers, you have to throw out their Week 18 game with them resting key players and starting Clayton Tune. But in Week 17, it was the first game we’ve seen with Josh Whyle since leaving Week 15 early due to injury. In that game, Whyle was the Packers’ TE on 71% of their 3WR sets, so Musgrave only saw 29% of those snaps, which are the more pass-heavy formations, while playing most of the 2TE sets, which are typically more run heavy. As a result, Musgrave only had a 41% routes run rate, which has been right around where he’s been since Tucker Kraft’s season-ending injury and when Whyle has been healthy and able to play a full game.
So his playing time has been limited, and this is also a game where the Packers could try to lean on the run game a bit more with Josh Jacobs closer to 100%. There’s also enough snow and wind in the forecast that it could impact the passing game.
Musgrave was a solid prospect and was actually taken a round ahead of Kraft in the same class, but he’s a different type of pass catcher and more of a downfield threat, and not very good after the catch, whereas Kraft is elite there. So either he’s going to see fewer downfield targets given the potential conditions, or if they end up scheming him more shorter throws and this things toast, but that’s not really his skill set.
The Bears have also been pretty solid against TEs, ranking 10th in DVOA against the position, and that was without their best coverage LB T.J. Edwards, who missed a handful of games in the middle of the season.
Musgrave clearly has the talent and role to clear this with 1–2 catches, so I’m going to shy away from his rec yds prop (showing value on the under 23.5, but some books are already down to 20.5) and since the main downside with him is playing time (on passing downs) I think this is the market to fade him. Projecting him closer to 2.2 receptions with around a 61% chance to stay under 2.5
206
Futures
| Past Performance | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 3-0-0 | 100% | 1.51u |
| Last 7 Days | 14-10-1 | 56% | 1.98u |
| Last 30 Days | 43-27-1 | 61% | 7.35u |
| All Time | 2035-1632-32 | 55% | 238.61u |
| Top Leagues | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| NFL | 1200-946-20 | 55% | 141.84u |
| MLB | 298-247-4 | 54% | 42.72u |
| NCAAB | 270-212-3 | 56% | 31.74u |
| WNBA | 147-118-3 | 55% | 19.47u |
| NCAAF | 37-25-2 | 58% | 6.01u |
| UFL | 5-4-0 | 56% | 0.60u |
| Golf | 0-3-0 | 0% | -0.60u |
| NBA | 78-74-0 | 51% | -2.77u |
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Betting Highlights
Favorite Bet of All-Time
Patrick Mahomes under 30.5 rushing yards for Super Bowl LIV. He had 44 yards going into the final drive. Kneeled down 3 times for -15 yards to drop down to 29 yards and hit the under
Most Heartbreaking Bet
Max bet Jimmy Graham under 23.5 rec yards in the WC playoff game against NO in 2020. He had 6 yards heading into the final drive with the Bears down 3-21. On the final play of the game, Mitch Trubisky finds Graham in the back of the end zone for an insane one handed grab for a 19-yard garbage time TD. Graham finished with 25 yards and I'm still tilted by this. Side note: Stuckey was on this prop with me.
Specialties
- NFL
- College football
- College basketball
- Player projections
- Have created team/player projection models for essentially every sport at some point