More from Sean Koerner
Exposed: The Truth Behind Common Sports Betting Myths
Is The Cash Out Button On Sportsbooks A SCAM?? | Cash Out Button Explained
Fantasy WR Sleeper Picks You NEED to Target! | Fantasy Football WR Rankings: Part 3 | Fantasy Flex
Wide Receivers With HUGE Value in Your league! | Fantasy Football WR Rankings: Part 2 | Fantasy Flex
Sean Koerner's Picks
Today
N.Chubb o12.5 Rush Att-133
TB
@
HOU
0.67u
09/15 11:00 PM
The Texans have a new OC in Nick Caley from the McVay tree, and he led them to the 9th lowest pass rate over expected on early downs in their Week 1 loss to the Rams. Houston had to shuffle the OL with RG Ed Ingram out (he’s back tonight) and trailed for half the game, which was not ideal for Chubb. Even in that setup he finished with 13 carries for 60 yards, looking much closer to his pre-injury form. He was the clear lead back in short yardage with Dameon Pierce and rookie Woody Marks mixing in.
The Texans also faced the fewest 3rd downs in the league (9) and converted them at a league-low 22%. That is a brutal environment for Chubb since his best chance at carries comes on 1st downs or in 3rd and short situations. Despite that, he still reached 13 attempts. On their FG drive in the 2nd quarter, Chubb opened with 4 straight runs before being spelled, and the team ran 3 more times on that series while up just 6-0. That shows how run heavy they can be in neutral or leading scripts.
Tonight that script is more likely. The Texans are 2.5-point favorites and have been drawing sharp action. Tampa Bay was fortunate last week with Baker Mayfield avoiding 1–2 likely interceptions, and their play style under new OC John Grizzard looks like one that will be in the lower half of the league in time of possession. That should give Houston extra plays and more opportunities for Chubb.
I project him closer to 14.4 rush attempts with about a 67% chance to clear 12.5. I would still take Over 13.5 at +106, where I show about a 58% chance he clears.
205
Pending
D.Thornton o14.5 Longest Reception-125
LAC
@
LV
0.63u
09/16 2:00 AM
Thornton is a 4th-round rookie who saw his stock soar in the preseason and is already starting over 2nd-round pick Jack Bech. That didn’t surprise me since Bech’s route tree overlaps with Jakobi Meyers and Brock Bowers, which makes him more of a long-term option for 2026 and beyond if they move on from Meyers. Thornton, on the other hand, is useful right now as a deep threat.
He saw 8 preseason targets with a 21.0 aDot and then a 24.8 aDot on 4 targets in Week 1. Three of those were 15+ yards downfield, so simply securing one clears this number. He already did it last week on a 36-yard catch where Geno underthrew him, but he tracked it perfectly.
Thornton only played in 3WR sets, and the Raiders led for almost the entire game (trailed for just 7 minutes, the 9th lowest rate of Week 1). In a potentially trailing game script tonight, he could see more playing time and Geno needing to be more aggressive downfield. Geno is one of the league’s better downfield passers, and I can see him treating Thornton as his new “DK Metcalf” downfield option.
The Chargers allowed four downfield targets last week. Tyquan Thornton (ironically in a similar role) saw three deep targets and caught one for 38 yards, while Hollywood Brown hauled in a 49-yarder. Those were Mahomes’ only four downfield attempts.
Thornton is exactly the type of rookie I want to invest in through the longest reception market, just like Brian Thomas Jr. and Rashid Shaheed early in their careers. He’s going to be a volatile boom/bust option, but that’s exactly why this angle works. I also like his 26.5-yard receiving line, but I prefer this since one catch for 15–26 yards cashes here without needing him to get a second target.
I project his median closer to 18.5 with around a 60% chance to clear 14.5. I still show him at about 58% to clear 15.5, so I’d be fine with that too.
183
Futures
Matthew Stafford o22.5-114
2025 NFL Regular Season - Total Passing TDs
0.57u
Discussed this on The Favorites
70
Cooper Kupp u700.5-114
2025 NFL Regular Season - Total Receiving Yards
1.14u
86
Javonte Williams u525.5-115
2025 NFL Regular Season - Total Rushing Yards
1.15u
48
Jared Verse o7.5-135
2025 NFL Regular Season - Total Sacks
1.35u
49
| Past Performance | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 6-8-0 | 43% | -1.53u |
| Last 7 Days | 7-8-0 | 47% | -1.03u |
| Last 30 Days | 16-27-1 | 36% | -5.03u |
| All Time | 1870-1511-31 | 55% | 216.66u |
| Top Leagues | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| NFL | 1052-835-19 | 55% | 122.74u |
| MLB | 290-245-4 | 54% | 40.18u |
| NCAAB | 262-210-3 | 55% | 28.85u |
| WNBA | 147-118-3 | 55% | 19.47u |
| NCAAF | 36-23-2 | 59% | 6.62u |
| UFL | 5-4-0 | 56% | 0.60u |
| Golf | 0-3-0 | 0% | -0.60u |
| NBA | 78-71-0 | 52% | -1.01u |
On Social
Betting Highlights
Favorite Bet of All-Time
Patrick Mahomes under 30.5 rushing yards for Super Bowl LIV. He had 44 yards going into the final drive. Kneeled down 3 times for -15 yards to drop down to 29 yards and hit the under
Most Heartbreaking Bet
Max bet Jimmy Graham under 23.5 rec yards in the WC playoff game against NO in 2020. He had 6 yards heading into the final drive with the Bears down 3-21. On the final play of the game, Mitch Trubisky finds Graham in the back of the end zone for an insane one handed grab for a 19-yard garbage time TD. Graham finished with 25 yards and I'm still tilted by this. Side note: Stuckey was on this prop with me.
Specialties
- NFL
- College football
- College basketball
- Player projections
- Have created team/player projection models for essentially every sport at some point