2020 Maine Democratic Primary Odds & Chances: Bernie Sanders Should Roll on Super Tuesday
Photo credit: Michael Tullberg/Getty Images. Pictured: Bernie Sanders
- Bernie Sanders is a -800 favorite (juice-free implied probability of 73.6%) to win the most delegates in Maine.
- Fourteen states total will vote tomorrow, March 3, on Super Tuesday, and Maine has 24 delegates, or about 0.6% of the total number in the primary.
- Joe Biden is second in the odds with an 11.8% implied probability to win; Elizabeth Warren and Michael Bloomberg are tied for third at 6.9%.
Four states have already voted for the 2020 Democratic Primary, and 14 more will join the party on Super Tuesday: Alabama, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont and Virginia.
It’s the biggest voting day on the primary schedule, and 1,357 of the 3,979 total delegates (34.1%) will be awarded. Note that in the Democratic primary, each state has a 15% vote threshold for a candidate to receive delegates. For example, if Bernie Sanders is the only candidate in Maine to get 15% or more of the votes, he will get all of the state’s delegates. If two candidates both receive above 15%, the delegates are divided according to vote share.
Entering Tuesday, Vermont senator Bernie Sanders currently leads the field in delegates after the first four states, and former Vice President Joe Biden leads in the popular vote. In third place for both was former South Bend mayor Pete Buttigieg, who dropped out this weekend after a lackluster finish in South Carolina’s primary. Minnesota senator Amy Klobuchar also suspended her campaign Monday afternoon.
The candidates will compete for 24 total delegates in Maine, which makes up about 0.6% of the total number in the primary. Sanders is currently the favorite to win the majority of those delegates; European book Betfair currently gives him -800 odds (bet $800 to win $100) to do so. That’s a juice-free implied probability of 73.6%.
It’s not surprising to see Sanders as the favorite, not only due to his current frontrunner status in the primary, but because he’s a senator from Vermont, which is close to Maine. He won in New Hampshire a couple weeks ago and likely got a similar geographic bump. (Elizabeth Warren, senator from Massachusetts, also likely gets a bump due to proximity.)
Warren is actually third in the betting market with +1100 odds (6.9% implied probability), tied with Michael Bloomberg. In second currently is Joe Biden, who is at +600, or an 11.8% probability.
Politics site FiveThirtyEight is right in line with the betting market, as they give Sanders a 71% chance to win a majority of delegates. They forecast him to win an average of 10 delegates, or nearly half. They’re slightly higher on the odds for Biden, whom they have at an 18% chance to win a majority.
See the full Maine primary odds below (via Betfair). Implied probabilities have the juice removed.
2020 Maine Democratic Primary Super Tuesday Odds
If you’re unfamiliar with betting odds, -800 means that if you bet $800 and Bernie Sanders wins, you’d profit $100. And +600 means if you bet $100, you’d profit $600.
- Bernie Sanders: -800, 73.6% implied probability
- Joe Biden: +600, 11.8% implied probability
- Elizabeth Warren: +1100, 6.9% implied probability
- Michael Bloomberg: +1100, 6.9% implied probability
- Tulsi Gabbard: +10000, 0.8% implied probability