2020 Virginia Democratic Primary Odds & Chances: Joe Biden Expected to Win on Super Tuesday
Photo credit: Ron Adar / Echoes Wire / Barcroft Media via Getty Images. Pictured: Joe Biden
- Joe Biden is a -300 favorite (64.6% implied probability) to win the most delegates in Virginia, followed by Bernie Sanders (+200, 28.7%).
- Fourteen states total will vote tomorrow, March 3, on Super Tuesday, and Virginia has 99 delegates, or about 2.6% of the total number in the primary.
- The other three candidates -- Michael Bloomberg, Elizabeth Warren and Tulsi Gabbard -- are all at 4.1% or lower to win Virginia.
Four states have already voted for the 2020 Democratic Primary, and 14 more will join the party on Super Tuesday: Alabama, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont and Virginia.
It’s the biggest voting day on the primary schedule, and 1,357 of the 3,979 total delegates (34.1%) will be awarded. Note that in the Democratic primary, each state has a 15% vote threshold for a candidate to receive delegates. For example, if Joe Biden is the only candidate in Virginia to get 15% or more of the votes, he will get all of the state’s delegates. If two candidates both receive above 15%, the delegates are divided according to vote share.
Entering Tuesday, Vermont senator Bernie Sanders currently leads the field in delegates after the first four states, and former VP Joe Biden leads in the popular vote. In third place for both was former South Bend mayor Pete Buttigieg, who dropped out this weekend after a lackluster finish in South Carolina’s primary. Minnesota senator Amy Klobuchar also suspended her campaign Monday afternoon.
The candidates will compete for 99 total delegates in Virginia, which makes up about 2.6% of the total number in the primary. Biden is currently the favorite to win the majority of those delegates; European book Betfair gives him -300 odds (bet $300 to win $100) to do so. That’s a juice-free implied probability of 64.6%.
In second place is Sanders, who is at +200 odds, or an implied probability of 28.7%. It seems to be a two-man race if anything, as Michael Bloomberg, Elizabeth Warren and Tulsi Gabbard are all at 4.1% probability or lower to win.
Politics site FiveThirtyEight agrees Biden is the favorite in Virginia, although they give him just a 58% chance to win the most delegates. They’re slightly higher on Sanders, whom they have at 35%.
See the full Virginia primary odds below (via Betfair). Implied probabilities have the juice removed.
2020 Virginia Democratic Primary Super Tuesday Odds
If you’re unfamiliar with betting odds, -300 means that if you bet $300 and Joe Biden wins, you’d profit $100. And +200 means if you bet $100, you’d profit $200.
- Joe Biden: -300, 64.6% implied probability
- Bernie Sanders: +200, 28.7% implied probability
- Michael Bloomberg: +2000, 4.1% implied probability
- Elizabeth Warren: +5000, 1.7% implied probability
- Tulsi Gabbard: +10000, 0.9% implied probability