Serie A Odds, Picks and Predictions: Lecce vs. Lazio (Tuesday, July 7)

Lazio at Lecce Odds, Pick

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After their disappointing loss to AC Milan over the weekend, Lazio now finds themselves seven points behind league leaders Juventus. However, a win for I Biancocelesti could bring them back within four points of the title if Juventus stumbles at AC Milan later in the day.

Lecce are fighting for their Serie A lives at the moment. They are two points from safety and need points desperately to avoid falling back into Serie B.

Lecce

It’s hard to understate how bad I Giallorossi have been defensively this season.

Lecce concede more expected goals per match (2.56) than any team across Europe’s major leagues.

Things have not improved since the restart as Lecce have surrendered 9.93 expected goals in their last four matches. Even more concerning is the fact that they allow 3.03 xG when they’re playing at home against teams in the top half of the table.

Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.

Despite their terrible defensive record, Lecce isn’t horrible offensively, scoring 1.25 xG per game. It’s no secret that most of their matches are high-scoring affairs, with 57% of their matches going over 3.5 goals.

It’s hard to imagine how this team will keep Lazio and striker Ciro Immobile in check on this afternoon.

Lazio

It's desperation time for I Biancocelesti, who need to win out to have a shot at their first Serie A title in 20 years.

Prior to the loss to AC Milan on Saturday, Lazio had been in fantastic form dating all the way back to October, ripping off an unprecedented 18 wins in their last 21 matches. Over that span, they’ve been consistent at both ends of the pitch, winning on average by 0.79 xG per game (1.89 xGF, 1.10 xGA).

Even when they are on the road, Lazio has taken care of business against Serie A's weaker teams. I Biancocelesti is 7-0-1, with a +4.55 expected goal differential in eight road matches against teams in the bottom half of the table.

Playing against a poor defense like Lecce, should get Immobile and company back on track.

Previous Meeting

Lazio won a six-goal thriller in reverse fixture back in November, 4-2. Both teams created a ton of chances, as there was a total of 43 shots taken in the game. The expected goals report also backed up the total of six goals being scored.

Analysis

My model is basically right inline with the betting market for this match, so I don't see any value backing either side. However, I do project this match for 4.1 expected goals, so I am going to take the Over 3.5 at plus-money.

• Lecce projected odds: +465 (17.70% win probability)
• Lazio projected odds: -201 (66.73%)
• Draw projected odds: +542 (15.57%)
• Lecce projected xG: 1.26
• Lazio projected xG: 2.84