Premier League Betting Odds & Picks for Wednesday’s Liverpool vs. Brighton & Hove Albion (Feb. 3)
Jon Super/PA Images via Getty Images. Pictured: Brighton & Hove Albion standout Neal Maupay.
- Liverpool hosts Brighton on Tuesday, with the Reds looking like they're back to their old selves again.
- A 3-1 win over West Ham United on the weekend was encouraging for the reigning champions, who hope to move into the title picture.
- Don't sleep on Brighton, though, as Jeremy Pond lays out where the betting value lies at Anfield below.
Liverpool vs. Brighton Odds
|Day | Time||Wednesday | 3:15 p.m. ET|
Brighton & Hove Albion will attempt to take down another Premier League giant Wednesday when it faces defending champion Liverpool at Anfield.
The Seagulls, who have struggled and been unlucky much of their campaign, earned a stunning, 1-0 road victory over Tottenham Hotspur last time out. The win gave Brighton some much needed breathing room from the relegation zone, pushing it seven points clear on the bottom three clubs.
As for the host, Liverpool secured its second consecutive win via a 3-1 triumph over West Ham United at London Stadium. The Reds, who defeated Tottenham Hotspur by an identical scoreline three games back, are in fourth place and four points behind leaders Manchester City and Manchester United.
Manager Jürgen Klopp has to be relatively pleased with the Reds’ last two efforts following that shock 1-0 loss to Burnley at Anfield four games back.
Yet, Klopp must keep his group focused on the task at hand instead of looking toward Sunday’s high-profile meeting with Manchester City. Brighton is no pushover and would not shock anyone if it were to pull off consecutive upsets in back-to-back road fixtures.
Statistically, Liverpool continues to be one of the top clubs — both offensively and defensively — in the advanced metrics.
The Reds sit on 41.1 expected goals and 23.5 expected goals against, resulting in a solid +17.6 xGDiff and +0.84 xGDiff/90 minutes. They lead the EPL in xG, plus they’re second in xGDiff and xGDiff/90 minutes, trailing only the Cityzens in both categories.
Fighting to stay above water much of their campaign, the Seagulls are unbeaten in their last three games and moved clear of drop-zone trouble.
I’ve said numerous times in my coverage and analysis of Brighton that I firmly believe it’s the best team with a bad record in league history. And thankfully, the Seagulls have proven their worth recently, scooping up five points via three consecutive clean sheets entering this match.
When comparing stats with Liverpool, Brighton’s numbers are far better than you’d expect from a team sitting fourth from the bottom out of 20 clubs.
The Seagulls are on 29.1 expected goals and stellar 22.6 expected goals against that result in a decent +6.5 xGDiff and +0.31 for xGDiff/90 minutes. Brighton’s xGDiff and xGDiff/90 are so good they rank seventh overall, putting it among the league’s finest when it comes to these figures.
Betting Analysis & Picks
There’s an obvious reason why Liverpool is a -250 favorite to grab the win at Anfield. Simply put, the Reds are the better team. However, this has all the makings of a trap game, with the looming Manchester City showdown.
If this was someone like Newcastle or West Bromwich Albion on the other side of the pitch, I would be on Liverpool in this spot. Problem is, this is a feisty Seagulls outfit, which just proved it can snag a road win on the league’s best.
That said, I am taking a shot with Brighton getting 1.5 goals at a fair price. The Seagulls are in their best form at the moment, so I will back them to keep things close in this affair.
I will also jump on the total staying under the alternative number of three goals. Part of the reason for this angle is the fact there have been two goals or less scored in Liverpool’s last three home matches.
Giving me even more confidence is the fact the total has stayed under 2.5 goals in seven of Brighton’s last nine league contests, including four consecutive EPL tilts that finished with a goal or less.
Picks: Brighton +1.5 (-136) | Total Under 3 Goals (-130)