Serie A Odds, Betting Picks & Predictions for Inter Milan vs. Roma (Wednesday, May 12)
Matteo Ciambelli/DeFodi Images via Getty Images. Pictured: AS Roma celebrate.
- Inter Milan was able to dethrone Juventus on Sunday for the first time in more than a decade to claim the Serie A title.
- On the other side, Roma is likely to miss out on the Champions League. However, a win here would secure a berth in the Europa League.
- BJ Cunningham explains below why the visiting team might be worth a bet since it has more to play for than Inter Milan in Wednesday's match.
Inter Milan vs. Roma Odds
|Inter Milan Odds||-157|
|Over/Under||3.5 (+108 / -134)|
|Day | Time||Wednesday | 2:45 p.m. ET|
|How To Watch||ESPN+|
|Odds updated Wednesday afternoon via DraftKings.|
Roma look to keep their hopes of European football alive when they travel to Milan Wednesday to take on the Serie A champions.
Inter Milan have already secured the Serie A title with three matches left in the season. It’s the first time in nine years that Juventus have been dethroned, and Inter is celebrating accordingly.
As far as this match is concerned, Inter doesn’t have anything to play for and may be rotating some of the guys in their squad. They thrashed Sampdoria this past weekend 5-1, so perhaps they haven’t quite moved on from their championship form.
Roma are in danger of missing out on not only the Champions League, but the Europa League as well. They sit in seventh place, two points ahead of Sassuolo, which would be the final Europa League spot for Italy. Roma have been in terrible form, with only one win in their last five matches in Serie A, and will be playing their third match in only six days on Wednesday.
The reason Inter have been crowned champions of Italy for the first time in over a decade is because they are elite at both ends of the pitch. Inter average 2.03 xG per match, while only allowing 1.01 xG per match. Romelu Lukaku and Lutaro Martinez have been a lethal goal-scoring tandem up front in Antonio Conte’s 3-5-2 system, scoring a combined 37 goals and putting up a 1.28 xG per 90 minutes combined scoring rate.
Conte’s 3-5-2 system is really a dream come true in modern soccer. It allows Inter to play two strikers of a traditional 4-4-2, but still provides three central midfielders who can outnumber or overwhelm their opponents going forward in attack and can also provide width with the use of two wing-backs. Inter have found a ton of success playing out of this formation, as they have a +1.04 xGD per 90 minutes this season.
The biggest question coming into this match for Inter is where does their motivation lie? They’ve already won the title, and the last three matches are a mere formality, so it’ll be interesting to see what team Conte selects and how motivated they are for three points at home.
Roma are desperate for three points in this match to lock up the final Europa League spot in the table. It’s been an up-and-down season for Roma, but what has been positive has been their offense, which is averaging 1.93 xG per match in Serie A this season.
The biggest difference between this season and last season is Roma have switched to a 3-4-2-1 formation, which is the same formation teams like Chelsea and RB Leipzig have adopted.
The main objective of the 3-4-2-1 is to completely overwhelm opposing defenses by outnumbering them on the counter-attack. The formation allows Roma some tactical flexibility, to adjust on the fly based on how the match is going.
That has allowed I Giallorossi to dominate possession and keep opponents on their toes. The proof is in the numbers, too, as Roma are averaging +0.61 xGD per 90 minutes, when playing out of that formation, per Understat.
However, Roma have one big flaw. They haven’t been able to beat anyone ahead of them in the Serie A table. In 10 matches against the top-six teams in Italy, I Giallorossi are a disappointing 0-4-6 overall. You can also see it’s pretty much a night-and-day difference when Roma play the league’s best.
So it will be interesting to see which Roma team shows up on Wednesday to face the Serie A champions.
Betting Analysis & Pick
With this match meaning pretty much nothing to Inter and everything to Roma, I think that has created some value on the away side, despite their terrible form against the top of the table.
Therefore, I am going to back Roma’s spread of +0.5 at +123 odds (DraftKings)
Pick: Roma +0.5 (+123)