The Best Matchup Bets For the Charles Schwab Challenge At Colonial
Sam Greenwood/Getty Images. Pictured: Bubba Watson
- Our staff highlights their favorite matchup bets for the 2020 Charles Schwab Challenge at Colonial Country Club.
- Find their picks for Bubba Watson vs. Russell Knox, Marc Leishman vs. Gary Woodland and two more matchups below.
The PGA TOUR makes its triumphant return on Thursday with the 2020 Charles Schwab Challenge at Colonial Country Club in Fort Worth, Texas.
Check out our favorite matchup bets for the Charles Schwab Challenge below.
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2020 Charles Schwab Challenge Matchup Picks
Kevin Kisner (-120) over Bubba Watson (DraftKings)
I normally reserve plus-money options for my favorite H2H bets, but this one was too fun to pass up. I already outlined my reasons I like Kisner above — and yes, it should stand to reason that if I like him to win outright, I should like him in most matchups, as well.
But this one is particularly juicy. I can’t think of a better matchup than Bubba, who’s about as poorly suited to Colonial as any player to any host venue. There’s a reason why he hasn’t teed it up here since way back in 2008. Expect his fellow UGA product to lap him on the leaderboard this time around.
Marc Leishman (-120) over Gary Woodland (Westgate)
We don’t really have much to go off of with these two, but Leishman has made the cut in all seven of his starts at Colonial. Woodland, on the other hand, has only shown up once and he missed the cut.
Both were in pretty good form when the TOUR shut down but I’ll back the guy who consistently has this stop on his calendar and usually puts up a solid result over a guy who skips it year in and year out.
Rory Sabbatini (+100) over Jason Kokrak (Parx)
Sabbatini is a dog here because … of recent play, I guess?
That’s really the only explanation why Kokrak — who went MC, MC, 51st but then 18th prior to the layoff — is the favorite here. Sabbatini is the superior putter, which I normally discount but won’t this week, and has vastly superior course history: In his last four events, he has a Course Adjusted Round Score of 69.3 compared to 72.0 for Kokrak.
In fact, Kokrak’s history here is one of the worst in the field. He’s solid at scrambling but typically fits better at longer courses; Sabbatini is the superior ball-striker.
As I wrote here, due to the uncertainty this week I want to target plus-money players in head-to-head matchups: Among similar players, why not take the superior payout when it’s more of a toss-up than the market is indicating?
If I can get the superior golfer with superior history at plus odds? Even better.
Russell Knox (-135) over Bubba Watson (FanDuel)
If anyone needed a reset button before COVID-19 stopped sports, it was Knox, who missed four consecutive cuts. Prior to that, the Scotsman had not missed a cut in 11 consecutive events, finishing top 20 in four of them before Pebble Beach on Feb. 19.
A tough way to start the tournament.
— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) March 12, 2020
Throughout the drought, Knox maintained a high scramble percentage and ranks 15th in GIR percentage this year. In four tournaments at Colonial, Knox has posted no worse than 24th and finished No. 8 last year.
And experience is something Bubba Watson does not have on his side in Fort Worth.
Watson ranks No. 4 in driving distance but 178th in driving accuracy, more specifically 218th in left rough tendency. That could find him out of bounds often with both par 5’s and all but four par 4’s shading a layout to the right.
Watson last played this event in 2008, accumulating just one birdie, four bogeys and a double. Considering approach to the green is a big component to Colonial, Watson’s strokes gained rank of 136th will have to improve to beat Knox at a rank of 15th on the 2020 season.