2021 Shriners Children’s Open Odds, Preview & Picks: Which Stats Matter Most at TPC Summerlin?
Meg Oliphant/Getty Images. Pictured: Webb Simpson
The PGA TOUR season brings us to Las Vegas this week to play the Shriners Children’s Open. TPC Summerlin is a par 71 measuring 7,255 yards and featuring bentgrass greens. The tournament has been a staple on tour since 1992.
The field is relatively strong this week, with 11 of the top 25 golfers in the world expected to make the trip to Las Vegas. Those golfers include Brooks Koepka, Louis Oosthuizen, Sungjae Im, Hideki Matsuyama, Viktor Hovland, Webb Simpson, Patrick Reed and Will Zalatoris.
Past Winners at TPC Summerlin
- 2020: Martin Laird (-23)
- 2019: Kevin Na (-22)
- 2018: Bryson DeChambeau (-21)
- 2017: Patrick Cantlay (-9)
- 2016: Rod Pampling (-20)
Let’s take a look at several key metrics for TPC Summerlin to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds.
Strokes Gained: Approach
Strokes Gained: Approach ranks out as the most predictive statistic for TPC Summerlin. Last year’s winner Martin Laird gained 6.5 strokes on approach which was fourth in the field.
Total Strokes Gained: Approach in past 24 rounds:
- Paul Casey (+27.9) (+3500)
- Russell Henley (+21.9) (+6600)
- Adam Svensson (+20.3) (+30000)
- Viktor Hovland (+19.8) (+2000)
- Talor Gooch (+18.1) (+8000)
TPC Summerlin ranks in the top 10 of courses in which driving accuracy is most important and predictive of the winner. Looking at past champions and course horses, guys who find the fairway are always a staple on the leaderboard (Simpson, Cantlay, Na, Laird).
Accuracy should prove to be more important than distance this week, as the course will punish players who miss the fairway. In a tournament in which making a lot of birdies will be crucial, players will need to find the fairway. This is very much a positional golf course.
Total Fairways Gained in past 24 rounds:
- Brendon Todd (+55.2) (+20000)
- Chez Reavie (+52.6) (+15000)
- Brian Stuard (+41.2) (+25000)
- Corey Conners (+39.0) (+3500)
- Ryan Moore (+38.6) (+15000)
Par 4: 400-450
Par 4’s between 400 and 450 yards are the most common hole length at TPC Summerlin. Six of the eleven par 4’s on the course fall in this yardage range.
Par 4:400-450 in past 24 rounds:
- Scott Stallings (+18.0)(+15000)
- Brooks Koepka (+15.1)(+2000)
- Kevin Na (+14.4)(+2800)
- Paul Casey (+14.1)(+3500)
- Abraham Ancer (+11.7)(+2200)
Looking at past leaderboards at the Shriners, it’s obvious that bentgrass specialists seem to perform very well at TPC Summerlin. Na, DeChambeau, and Cantlay all putt better on bentgrass and have been excellent here in the past. Kevin Na gained an absurd 14.2 strokes putting en route to his victory in 2019.
Total SG: Putting (Bentgrass greens+Fast) in past 24 rounds:
- Abraham Ancer (+23.5) (+2200)
- Brandt Snedeker (+19.7) (+20000)
- Sam Ryder (+18.8) (+27500)
- Harris English (+16.0) (+3000)
- Cameron Tringale (+15.3) (+5000)
Birdie or Better: Gained
While TPC Summerlin does present a few challenges, scoring is generally relatively easy at the course; it ranks in the bottom 25% of courses on tour in terms of difficulty. Therefore, golfers will need to present themselves with a lot of birdie opportunities. Four of the past five winners have finished with a score of -20 or better.
Total Birdie or Better: Gained in past 24 rounds:
- Webb Simpson (+20.8)(+2500)
- Hank Lebioda (+20.1)(+25000)
- Brooks Koepka (+16.4)(+2000)
- Aaron Wise (+16.3)(+8000)
- Cameron Davis (+16.2)(+10000)
Below, I’ve reported overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed.
These rankings are comprised of SG:APP (25%) Fairways Gained: (20%), Birdie or Better Gained (20%), Par 4: 400-450 (15%), SG: Putting (Bentgrass+ Fast) 18%.
- Abraham Ancer (+2200)
- Mark Hubbard (+27500)
- Ian Poulter (+8000)
- Erik Van Rooyen (+4500)
- Harris English (+3000)
- Kevin Na (+2800)
- Louis Oosthuizen (+2500)
- Emiliano Grillo (+10000)
- Seamus Power(+11000)
- Zach Johnson (+17500)
Shriners Children’s Open Best Bets
Webb Simpson (+2800, bet365): Both of the past two winners at TPC Summerlin had won the event previously in their careers; I believe Webb Simpson will make it three in a row this week.
The course is a a natural fit for Simpson, as evidenced by his previous win and four top 20 finishes in his past four trips here. He ranks 1st in the field in Strokes Gained: Total at TPC Summerlin. This is a spot on the schedule where course history absolutely matters and it should play in his favor once again this week.
To compete at TPC Summerlin, making birdies is a must as we often see winning scores get beyond the -20 under par range. Simpson ranks 1st in the field in Birdie or Better in his past 24 rounds and I like his chances of keeping up if this turns into another birdie fest.
The 36 year old hasn’t won a TOUR event since June of 2020, and had an up and down year in 2020-2021 in comparison to his usual consistent play throughout his career. Webb is a golfer who continuously plays the same tracks well year after year, so getting back to a spot he is comfortable at could be the spark that gets him back into the winner’s circle this week.
Hideki Matsuyama (+2800, DraftKings): Hideki is coming into the week playing some good golf haven’t finished 6th at the Fortinet Championship in his most recent start. He gained 10.1 strokes from tee to green which indicates the 2021 Masters champ is rounding back into peak form in terms of ball striking.
Matsuyama has had well documented struggles with the putter throughout his career but tends to fare much better on Bentgrass, which he will see at TPC Summerlin. The 29 year old has had some success at the course the few times he has played it having finishes of 10th and 16th in addition to a missed cut last season.
With two wins in Phoenix (TPC Scottsdale), we know Hideki enjoys playing desert golf. If he can consistently play from the fairway and putt slightly above field average this week, his elite ball striking should carry him into contention.
Mito Pereira (+6600, Bet365):
I had to jump off the Mito train when he was priced up as one of the tournament favorites last week at the Sanderson Farms Championship, but I’ll gladly jump back on here at 66-1.
In many ways, this is a better course fit for Pereira. Chief among those reasons is his ability to putt on Bentgrass greens. Like his fellow countryman Joaquin Niemann, most of the early success in the Chilean’s career has come on similar putting surfaces. In fact, in his past ten measures starts between the Korn Ferry Tour and PGA TOUR, Mito has five top six finishes including two Korn Ferry wins. All five of those performances came on Bentgrass greens.
Pereira also comes into the event in peak form, having contended for a victory two starts ago at The Fortinet Championship and posted excellent ball striking stats last week at the Country Club of Jackson. He gained 5.6 strokes on approach and was dialed in with his irons all week. He didn’t contend because he lost almost 5 strokes with the putter, which I don’t expect to happen this week on greens that will suit him much better.
We know the TOUR rookie can win a birdie fest as his two wins on the Korn Ferry TOUR came at -27 and -21. TPC Summerlin seems to be an ideal spot for Pereira to earn his first victory on the PGA TOUR.