2022 PGA Championship Final Round Odds, Picks: Back Mito Pereira To Stand Strong, Win First Major
Ross Kinnaird/Getty Images. Pictured: Mito Pereira.
2022 PGA Championship Final Round Odds
Odds via PointsBet as of Saturday night.
Moving Day at the PGA Championship saw Mito Pereira put himself into position at the top of the leaderboard, nearly give it all back, and then grow his lead back to three shots before the end of the round. He supplanted second-round leader Will Zalatoris at the top after just a couple of holes as the latter struggled with his putting early in the round.
Pereira would eventually make his way back under par after a birdie on the 18th to end the day. He’ll be joined on Sunday by Matt Fitzpatrick who had a 3-under 67 on Saturday to move in a tie for second alongside Zalatoris. Cameron Young matched Fitzpatrick with a 67 of his own that included an eagle at the par-4 17th, and he will join Zalatoris in the penultimate pairing in the final round.
None of those four players have won a PGA Tournament, much less a major in their careers, and it is not until we get to Stewart Cink and Justin Thomas at seven shots back that we get to former major winners.
It seems we are set up for a first-time major winner once again this week, but it won’t necessarily be the Chilean, who found out on Saturday how quickly a lead can be erased around Southern Hills. He will still need to play his game and avoid mistakes, which could make for an interesting Sunday at the PGA Championship.
Strokes Gained Explanation
Strokes Gained can give golf bettors, DFS players and fans way more detail on how a golfer has truly played by measuring each shot in relation to the rest of the field.
Using the millions of data points it collects, the TOUR calculates how many shots on average it takes a player to get the ball in the hole from every distance and situation. If a player beats those averages, he’s gaining strokes on the field.
Every situation in golf is different. Strokes Gained measures how players perform relative to the situation.
In this piece, we’ll touch on a variety of Strokes Gained metrics:
- Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee
- Strokes Gained: Approach
- Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green
- Strokes Gained: Putting
- Strokes Gained: Ball-Striking (which is Off-the-Tee + Approach)
- Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (which is Ball-Striking + Around-the-Green)
In general, SG: Ball-Striking and SG: Tee-to-Green are the most stable long term, while putting is more prone to volatility.
You can often find live-betting advantages by identifying golfers who are hitting the ball well, but are just not getting putts to drop. Likewise, players with high SG: Putting numbers may regress moving forward.
3 Golfers to Buy in Round 4
While Mito Pereira lacks winning experience at the TOUR level and certainly in major championships, he has shown the ability to close out wins in his professional career. His promotion to the PGA TOUR in 2021 was by virtue of achieving three wins in a season on the Korn Ferry Tour, which is a standard for an automatic bump to the big stage.
Pereira hasn’t been in this position at this level and frankly hasn’t had any top-10 finishes, but he showed the form coming in and as mentioned seems to have a knack for finishing the job.
I am buying in entering Sunday at +160 on FanDuel, where they’re implying just a 38% win probability for the Chilean, while DataGolf gives him a 51% likelihood to win his first major. That is good enough for me, especially as someone that has put my money behind him many times with nothing to show for it leading into this week.
I made a buy going into Friday’s second round on Cameron Young at +15000, and he is the guy near the top who I think could be most likely to post a low round. He seems to be poised beyond his experience as he has shown many times this season. The former Wake Forest grad will get a really comfortable pairing alongside his college roommate Will Zalatoris on Sunday and that can only ease his nerves.
Young has been in this spot on a bit of a lesser level at the Genesis Invitational and played well in that position. I don’t think he will be scared of the stage, so I’ll stick with him and his low-scoring abilities in the final round, which could give him an opportunity to pull off an improbable first win.
If there is one player as a longer shot that would give me no surprise if they shot 63 en route to a win on Sunday, it’s certainly Justin Thomas.
We have known him as the guy that can go low at any moment throughout his career and I fully expect him to bounce back from the 1.63 shots he lost tee to green on Saturday. He lost strokes to the field in every metric of his round for the first time that I can find since the 2021 Charles Schwab and he bounced back that next round by gaining four shots ball striking.
I fully expect that to happen again for JT and if the putts happen to be rolling in, he could be an interesting longshot at +3300 on WynnBet and he will be a staple for me in all other Sunday formats.
3 Golfers to Fade in Round 4
A lot of the talk coming into Saturday was about how Will Zalatoris was ranked first in SG: Putting on the week. He had two really strong days putting to start this PGA Championship, but anyone that has watched him over time knows that that simply is not who he is. He is a ball-striker at heart who will contend any time he gets anything from the flatstick.
Unfortunately for Zalatoris, his putting regressed on Saturday and while it was tough to watch, it wasn’t unexpected. My fade for him on Sunday is as much about the fact that there is still room for regression for a player that gained 6.18 shots on the greens across his first thirty-six holes.
It may be that the comfort of a Sunday pairing at a major alongside his college roommate, Young, will loosen him up to make some putts, but I’ll take my chances that he continues back towards the mean in the final round.
I’m going back to the well on the fade of Abraham Ancer, this time for Sunday’s final round. He has been regressing in SG: Approach across each day, finishing the third-round right around field average. He again hit just 10 of 18 greens in regulation and still managed to get in at even par due to a hot putter. As I said going into Saturday, this type of play and missing that many greens just isn’t a sustainable scenario for success around Southern Hills, especially for a player that is as poor as Abe is around the greens.
Just to reiterate, Ancer is currently 206th of 210 TOUR players in that metric this season, and I think he finally gets exposed for that play on Sunday.
The only player in the top 10 of this leaderboard losing strokes to the field on approach this week is Lucas Herbert. He has also regressed each day in this metric, losing 1.57 shots to the field with his irons on Saturday. He still carved out an incredible round of 68 on Moving Day due to the hottest putter in the field. The Australian gained 4.53 strokes on the putting surfaces in Round 3 as he dropped 132.5 feet of putts during the day.
We haven’t seen many players make it into the triple digits for feet of putts made during rounds this week, but he has now done it twice. Maybe he just sees them so well that it makes his approach game largely irrelevant, but I’ll take my chances that he can’t keep rolling it that hot as the pressure rises on him for a top finish.