Freedman’s Favorite PGA Tournament Matchup (Feb. 6): Michael Thompson vs. Talor Gooch

Each day, I publish at least one quick-n’-dirty piece highlighting a favorite prop of mine.

For more information on my research process and the resources I use, see the master list of my 2019 prop bets.

2019 Year-to-Date Record

39-27-4, +14.44 Units

• NFL: 21-13-0, +11.72 Units
• NBA: 8-7-0, +0.30 Units
• NHL: 6-3-3, +3.71 Units
• Golf: 2-3-1, -0.70 Units
• NCAAF: 0-1-0. -1.0 Units
• Exotics: 2-0-0. +0.40 Units

Freedman’s Favorite PGA Tournament Matchup for Wednesday, Feb. 6: Michael Thompson vs. Talor Gooch

• Michael Thompson: +120
• Talor Gooch: -140

The AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am tees off on Thursday at noon ET, so it's time to hit the links.

I openly admit that I don't watch golf. Almost all I know about it is based on the information I get from three sources.

• The Action Network Golf Page
• The Action Network Golf Podcast
• FantasyLabs PGA Models

While Thompson and Gooch don't get a lot of widespread attention, their head-to-head tournament matchup did catch my eye as I researched in our FantasyLabs Models.

Although Thompson is the underdog, he's been the better golfer over the past 75 weeks, sporting better numbers in several long-term metrics.

• Adjusted round score: 70.3 vs. 70.4
• Greens in regulation: 69.3% vs. 65.9%
• Driving accuracy: 63.6% vs. 58.0%
• Field strength: 89.4% vs. 87.7%

Gooch has the superior long-term driving distance (300.1  yards vs. 295.4), but my colleague Joshua Perry has noted that because each of the three courses is shorter than 7,000 yards, the driver plays much less of a role at this event

And Thompson's short game has been almost as good as Gooch's, with 29.3 long-term putts per round to 29.2.  

Gooch has two top-five finishes in his three tournaments this year, but he missed the cut at last week's Phoenix Open, and Thompson has mostly respectable finishes of 13, 9, 69, 17 and 11 in his five PGA events dating back to August.

In this head-to-head matchup, it seems hard to say that Thompson deserves to be a dog.

I'd bet on Thompson down to +105.

The Pick: Thompson (+120)

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Matthew Freedman is the Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs. He has a dog and sometimes a British accent. In Cedar Rapids, Iowa, he’s known only as The Labyrinthian.