Freedman’s Favorite PGA Matchup (Feb. 13): Bryson DeChambeau & Jon Rahm at 2019 Genesis Open

Each day, I publish at least one quick-n’-dirty piece highlighting a favorite prop of mine. See my master list of 2019 prop bets for more information.

Also follow me in The Action Network app, where each day I post additional, official player prop picks. On Wednesday, we have 11-game NBA and two-game NHL slates.

2019 Year-to-Date Record

89-66-8, +23.08 Units

• NFL: 21-13-0, +11.72 Units
• NBA: 38-27-2, +7.85 Units
• NHL: 21-22-5, +0.27 Units
• Golf: 3-3-1, +0.50 Units
• NASCAR: 1-0-0. +1.10 Units
• NCAAF: 0-1-0. -1.00 Units
• Exotics: 5-0-0. +2.64 Units

Freedman’s Favorite PGA Matchup (Feb. 13): Bryson DeChambeau vs. Jon Rahm

• Bryson DeChambeau: +115
• Jon Rahm: -135

The 2019 Genesis Open tees off at Riviera Country Club this week (Feb. 14, 9:40 a.m. ET), and I like the star-studded head-to-head matchup between Bryson DeChambeau and Jon Rahm.

Although Rahm is favored, DeChambeau is one of the top ball-strikers at the event.

Rahm is great: There's nothing to dislike about him. He's finished in the top 10 in each of his four events this year.

But the FantasyLabs PGA Models point to DeChambeau.

Like Rahm, DeChambeau has also been a top-10 finisher in his four 2019 tournaments, and he has the superior long-term numbers in a variety of metrics.

• Adjusted round score: 68.3 vs. 68.4
• Driving accuracy: 62.0% vs. 60.1%
• Scrambling: 59.2% vs. 57.3%
• Putts per round: 29.0 vs. 29.2
• Field strength: 93.5% vs. 92.2%

And DeChambeau also has the superior recent form (67.2 adjusted round score vs. 67.4).

Rahm might have the better course fit thanks to his long-term length off the tee (307.5 yards vs. 303.5), but it's hard to say that his driving distance provides enough of an edge to make him a clear favorite over DeChambeau.

Given how evenly Rahm and DeChambeau are matched, I'll easily take the golfer with better long-term form at plus odds.

I'd bet DeChambeau down to +105.

The Pick: DeChambeau (+115)

Matthew Freedman is the Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs. He has a dog and sometimes a British accent. In Cedar Rapids, Iowa, he’s known only as The Labyrinthian.