Freedman’s Favorite Prop Bet (Jan. 2): Charles Howell III vs. Ian Poulter
USA Today Sports. Pictured: Charles Howell III and Ian Poulter
I had a great 2018 betting on props, thanks primarily to our FantasyLabs Tools, so for 2019 I will have a quick-n’-dirty daily piece in which I highlight my favorite prop for the day.
Why Betting on Props Is Fun
In 2018, I bet on thousands of props across a variety of sports: NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL, NASCAR, golf (PGA and European Tour) and eSports (League of Legends). I even placed bets on pop culture events, such as the Academy Awards, the Grammy Awards and Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest.
Was I successful with all of them? No. And that’s why I almost never bet on any kind of prop related to darts anymore. Almost never.
But overall I had success last year, and I also had a lot of fun. There are many practical reasons why people should play props. But I honestly play them because they’re fun.
Before 2018, I knew very little about almost every sport outside of the NFL. Now, I still know almost nothing, but I know more than I did, and on a daily basis I enjoyed sweating the individual performances of many players across all sorts of sports.
I’m looking to keep the good times rolling in 2019.
What Tools I Use to Bet Props
Here are the research tools and articles I use to inform my prop-betting decisions.
The FantasyLabs Props Tools: These tools compare our industry-leading projections to the props available in the market and highlight which props offer the most value.
The FantasyLabs Models: Some sportsbooks offer fantasy point props, which I’ve bet successfully using the projections in our daily fantasy models.
The RotoViz Tools: I got my early start in the industry at RotoViz (as did FantasyLabs co-founder Jonathan Bales), and RotoViz has a great collection of NFL and NASCAR apps. Here are some of my favorites.
The Action Network Articles: Each day, you can find at least one props piece on The Action Network, most likely written by one of the following contributors.
- Matt LaMarca: NBA & MLB
- Justin Bailey: NFL & MLB
- Cort Smith (of Bet the Prop): NFL
- Nick Giffen (of RotoViz): NASCAR
Approximately 99% of the success I’ve had with prop bets is due to these resources. I suggest you consult them for yourself.
2019 Year-to-Date Record
0-1-0, -1.0 Units
- NBA: 0-1-0, -1.0 Units
Freedman’s Favorite Prop Bet for Wednesday, Jan. 2: Charles Howell III (-135) vs. Ian Poulter (+115), Tournament Matchup
The Pick: Poulter (+115)
The Tournament of Champions tees off in Hawaii on Thursday, Jan. 3, at 3 p.m. ET, and there are a few head-to-head tournament matchups I like. (In tomorrow’s piece, I might highlight a Round 1 prop.)
Joshua Perry highlights Poulter in his Tournament of Champions betting preview, and I think he provides some value here.
Although golf GOAT Jason Sobel likes Howell as a top-five bet, Poulter has the superior long-term adjusted round score (69.2 vs. 69.4), greens-in-regulation percentage (67.9% vs. 68.4%) and driving accuracy (63% vs. 60.9%).
It’s possible that this course suits Howell better than Poulter, but last year I had quite a bit of success in tournament matchups by simply betting at plus odds the golfers who had better long-term marks in the FantasyLabs Models. That’s what I’m doing here.
I’d be willing to bet it to +100.