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RUNNING HOT JULY 3
Nick Giffen's Picks
Today
Pending
Austin Dillon +25000
Bass Pro Shops Night Race
0.03u
Voldemort
33
Justin Haley +950 (Top 10)
Bass Pro Shops Night Race
0.25u
#RunningHot ... 10 at Hard Rock
33
B. Keselowski over J. Logano-115
Bass Pro Shops Night Race
1.15u
#RunningHot
Z
17
T. Gibbs over J. Logano-115
Bass Pro Shops Night Race
1.15u
#RunningHot
11
C.Tillman o41.5 Rec Yds-114
CLE
@
BAL
1.14u
09/14 5:00 PM
Cedric Tillman (CLE) over 41.5 rec yds -114 at DK/FD
has thrived in his short career vs man and cover 6, both of which BAL plays at a high rate
CIN played these at a high rate last week as well, and by similarity scores BAL had the most similar coverage schemes to CIN in Week 1
BAL gets less pressure than Cincy both last year and early this year
Tillman burned them for 99 yards on 7 catches last year, and dropped 52 yards on 5 catches against Cincy week 1
Good to 45.5
129
C.Tillman Anytime TD Scorer Yes+360
CLE
@BAL
0.5u
09/14 5:00 PM
See note from rec yds prop I tracked
91
K.Williams o18.5 Rush Att-108
LA
@
TEN
1.08u
09/14 5:00 PM
Kyren Williams over 18.5 rush att (-108 at DK)
Had 18 last week on just 57 total plays for the Rams
Should have...
1. More time of possession than last week given they face the Titans who struggled to control the ball in Week 1 with rookie QB Cam Ward
2. Better game script as heavier favorites than last week
DEN RBs combined for 24 rush att on 71 plays last week vs. TEN
Has averaged 20.8 rush att in 16 Rams wins since returning from injury in 2023
Projecting closer to 20.5 totes for Kyren here
84
K. Williams First Team TD Scorer+195
LA
@TEN
1u
09/14 5:00 PM
Since start of 2024 Kyren has scored a TD in 13 of 19 games
All 13 of those times he scored the Rams first TD of the game
53
ATL +5-115
ATL
@
MIN
1.15u
09/15 12:20 AM
There is -110 available at Circa
This is the top Luck Rankings play of the week with a "B" grade and a luck-based cover% (LBC%) of 59.2%
I want to get the 5 now before its gone.
81
NASCAR Cup Series Championship: C. Bell to Win Title+800
0.25u
#RunningHot adding more to the title position on Bell
20
K. Larson over 4.5 wins-135
1.35u
#RunningHot victory lane pick
13
Front Row Motorsports under 0.5 wins+115
1u
#RunningHot
6
NASCAR Cup Series Championship: C. Bell to Win Title+650
1u
Also available at ESPN BET
23
Lowest Scoring Team (Regular Season): NY Jets+900
1u
3rd lowest Expected Score last year
4th largest O-line downgrade (-$30m AAV per 4for4)
Jets opposing D's spent most $ of all 32 schedules
Fields/Tyrod not upgrades/likely downgrades & will run more w/Fields eating clock
5th unluckiest set of opponents from last year (opponents regression to better results)
Tankapalooza
49
Futures
| Past Performance | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 2-3-0 | 40% | -0.75u |
| Last 7 Days | 7-23-0 | 23% | -1.06u |
| Last 30 Days | 16-71-0 | 18% | -2.68u |
| All Time | 1096-2219-19 | 33% | 261.03u |
| Top Leagues | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| NCAAB | 419-344-8 | 54% | 102.60u |
| NFL | 368-577-8 | 39% | 90.45u |
| NASCAR | 240-1145-2 | 17% | 47.08u |
| NHL | 3-1-0 | 75% | 3.57u |
| World Cup | 13-26-0 | 33% | 1.18u |
| FORMULA_ONE | 0-1-0 | 0% | -0.50u |
| NASCAR_XFINITY | 0-1-0 | 0% | -0.50u |
| Women's World Cup | 1-4-0 | 20% | -0.95u |
| MLB | 2-4-0 | 33% | -1.71u |
| European Championship | 17-49-1 | 25% | -3.47u |
On Social
Betting Highlights
Favorite Bet of All-Time
I bet on my favorite driver Kyle Kirkwood at 20-1 to win the Long Beach Grand Prix. I went to the race and watched him win it in person for his first career IndyCar win. It was the first time I watched him race an IndyCar in person, so I'm officially his good luck charm.
Specialties
- NASCAR Expert
- NFL Luck Rankings
- NCAAB Player Props