Five NBA Prop Bets for Saturday: LeBron Over/Under 10 Boards?
Mark J. Rebilas- USA Today Sports
Saturday night features a full slate of NBA action, with 10 games starting at 7 p.m. ET or later. That means lots of opportunities to look for exploitable prop bets, and luckily the FantasyLabs Player Props tool is here to help. There are currently five props with a Bet Quality of 10 out of 10 and an additional 16 props with a Bet Quality of nine.
Here are five props I’m eyeing for games starting at 7:30, 8, 9, and 10 p.m. ET.
Cavs SF LeBron James over 10 rebounds (-130)
8 p.m. ET
The Cavs are insanely shorthanded in their frontcourt today, with Kevin Love, Larry Nance Jr., Cedi Osman and Tristan Thompson all ruled out. As a result, no one in our NBA Models is currently projected for more minutes than LeBron, and he should see a solid handful of those minutes at the PF position. LeBron pulled down 14 rebounds in his last contest in a similar role, and that was against a Portland team that ranks fifth in team rebound rate. Chicago, LeBron’s opponent on Saturday night, ranks 17th in team rebound rate.
Nuggets PG Jamal Murray over four assists (-114)
8 p.m. ET
Gary Harris has been ruled out tonight for the Nuggets, which should result in a boost in value for Murray. His usage rate has increased by 3% with Harris off the court this season, and the Nuggets’ implied team total of 110.75 is the fifth-highest mark on the slate. Murray’s matchup with the Grizzlies isn’t ideal from a pace perspective, but they’ve allowed 113.2 points per 100 possessions since the All-Star Break.
Knicks C Enes Kanter under 11 rebounds (-125)
7:30 p.m. ET
Kanter is one of the top rebounders in the league, with his rebound percentage of 23.6 percent trailing only DeAndre Jordan and Andre Drummond this season. That said, Kanter’s playing time has dropped off recently, and he’s finished below the 24-minute mark in each of his past three games. Today’s matchup with the Hornets is going to be difficult from a rebound perspective, with Charlotte currently ranking third in the league in team rebound rate.
Warriors PF Draymond Green over 14.5 points (-114)
10 p.m. ET
The Cavs aren’t the only shorthanded team on today’s slate. The Warriors are down Steph Curry, Klay Thompson, Kevin Durant, and Omri Casspi, which will likely result in some additional offensive responsibilities for Green. He posted a usage rate of 26.3 percent on Friday, which was his second highest mark of the season, and scored 14 points in a game in which the Warriors only scored 93 as a team. They should be in a much better offensive spot today against the Suns, who are playing at the second-fastest pace in the league and rank dead last in defensive efficiency.
Jazz SG Donovan Mitchell under 23.5 points (-143)
9 p.m. ET
Mitchell has had a fantastic rookie season, but this line feels a little too high. He’s finished with more than 23.5 points just once in his past six games, and today’s game between the Jazz and Kings should be particularly slow. Both of these teams rank in the bottom six in terms of pace this season, and the 198-point over/under is the lowest mark on today’s slate. The Jazz are also massive 15-point favorites, so it’s possible that Mitchell could see reduced minutes in a blowout.
Top Photo: LeBron James; Photo Credit: Mark J. Rebilas- USA Today Sports