Three NBA Prop Bets for Monday: Justise Winslow Over/Under 10 Points?
Mar 3, 2018; Miami, FL, USA; Miami Heat forward Josh Richardson (back) celebrates after Miami Heat forward Justise Winslow (right) dunked the ball against the Detroit Pistons during the second half at American Airlines Arena. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports
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Today’s NBA slate only features four games, but a limited number of games won’t stop us from looking for a profit. The FantasyLabs Player Props tool has identified a handful of potentially exploitable prop bets by leveraging our projections against five of the most popular online Sportsbooks. There are currently five props with a Bet Quality of 10 out of 10 and an additional nine props with a Bet Quality of at least eight.
Here are three props on my radar for games starting at 8 and 10:30 p.m. ET.
Heat SF Justise Winslow under 10 points (-143)
10:30 p.m. ET | ESPN
Winslow has played well recently, scoring 10 or more points in five of his past six games. However, four of those contests came when the Heat were pretty shorthanded, and they are much closer to full strength at the moment. As a result, Winslow has played 28.5 minutes or fewer in each of his past two games, and his average usage rate of 15.5 percent this season puts him outside the top 10 in terms of Miami’s highest usage players. The Heat also have a difficult matchup today with the Portland Trail Blazers, who rank seventh in defensive efficiency this season.
Bucks SF Giannis Antetokounmpo under 4.5 assists (+105)
8 p.m. ET
The Greek Freak has been a nice value from a fantasy perspective of late, but it has not been due to his assist numbers. He’s posted five or more just twice in his past six games, which makes getting better than even money on this prop pretty enticing. The Bucks also have a tough matchup with the Grizzlies, who rank dead last in pace this season.
Spurs PG Dejounte Murray under 12.5 points (-125)
8 p.m. ET | ESPN
The Spurs are in a slight pace-up spot today against the Houston Rockets, but it hasn’t had much of an impact on their implied team total. Vegas has them implied for 99.5 points today, which is a slight decrease compared to their season average (102.3). The Rockets are tied for ninth in defensive efficiency, and Murray has an especially brutal individual matchup against Chris Paul. Even in his old age, Paul ranks as the league’s fourth-best point guard per Defensive Real Plus/Minus.
Top photo: Miami Heat players Justise Winslow (right) and Josh Richardson (back); credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports