Friday’s Best NBA Player Props: Betting Klay Thompson Points, More
Credit: Mike DiNovo-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Golden State Warriors guard Klay Thompson (11).
- Friday's eight-game NBA slate features three player prop bets offering value
- This piece will focus on Rockets PG Chris Paul, Wizards PG John Wall, and Warriors SG Klay Thompson
Prop bets can be a great way to get action on a game. Bookmakers don’t have to worry about taking a lot of action on them, so there isn’t as great an incentive to post a competitive line.
As a result, props can be some of the most exploitable bets on the board.
These props can become downright unfair when you combine them with the FantasyLabs Player Prop tool.
Friday’s best props focus on three of the slate’s eight games:
- Houston Rockets at Brooklyn Nets: 7:30 p.m. ET
- Oklahoma City Thunder at Washington Wizards: 8 p.m. ET on ESPN
- Minnesota Timberwolves at Golden State Warriors: 10:30 p.m. ET on ESPN
Let’s dive right in.
Rockets PG Chris Paul
The Pick: Over 8.5 assists (EVEN)
This line makes very little sense to me. Paul is one of the best distributors in the league and has averaged 9.8 assists per game during his career. He’s only at 8.3 this season, but his playing time has been cut short by a few blowouts.
James Harden will also miss today’s contest, and Paul averaged 10.0 assists per game with Harden out of the lineup last season. Paul handed out nine assists and played 37 minutes in his most recent game, and he has a easier matchup today vs. the Brooklyn Nets.
The Rockets have been bad to start the season, but they’re due for some positive regression. I’d play this up to -170.
Wizards PG John Wall
The Pick: Over 9.5 assists (-167)
This game between the Wizards and Thunder has some real shootout potential. Both of these teams rank in the top six in pace this season, so Wall should have plenty of possessions to rack up assists.
Wall has averaged just 7.1 assists through his first seven games but has averaged at least 8.8 assists per game in each of the past five seasons.
I liked this prop much better when it opened at eight assists, but I still think there’s some value at 9.5. I wouldn’t play it much higher than -167 though.
Warriors SG Klay Thompson
The Pick: Over 20.0 points (-130)
Thompson has averaged at least 20 points per game each of the past four seasons, but the way he does it is a little unconventional. He’s a boom-or-bust type of player, and that trend has continued into this season: He erupted for 52 points this week, but has been below 20 points in his other eight games.
That said, I still think there’s some value with the over here. This game between the Warriors and Timberwolves figures to be jam-packed with scoring, and the 243-point total is the highest mark since 2009.
Thompson also has an excellent individual matchup against Andrew Wiggins, who graded out as one of the worst perimeter defenders in the league last season.
The total on this game continues to rise, so I have no problem banking on Thompson to go over 20 points despite his previous results. I’d play this up to -155.