Professionals Hammering Lakers-Nuggets Over/Under Into Oblivion
Photo credit: Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Nikola Jokic
- Tonight's Lakers-Nuggets game (9:00 p.m. ET, NBA TV) has attracted an excessive amount of sharp betting activity on the over/under.
- Using The Action Network's betting tools, we identified how both sharp and public bettors are playing the total.
Tonight, the Nuggets host the Lakers in a battle of mid-tier Western Conference teams. Just one of five NBA games on the night, this matchup has received about 25% more bets than the second-most heavily bet game of the evening — Raptors-Grizzlies.
With the game getting a slot on NBA TV, there’s sure to be an influx of bets coming from folks watching LeBron and his cohorts trying to take down the Nugs.
So far public and sharp bettors are have gone all in on the over/under, resulting in drastic line movement.
Let’s analyze the action.
After opening at 211.5, the Lakers-Nuggets over/under has skyrocketed to 218.5 at most books and even up to 219 at a handful of others.
So, what’s causing the total to spike like the Heat Miser’s thermometer?
Steam moves up the wazoo.
The initial wave of sharp action came in shortly after the line opened, with pros taking over 212.
A second Sports Insights Bet Signal was triggered after midnight ET, with a third coming after sunrise. The most recent steam move came in on the over at 217.
Sharp bettors aren’t alone, though, as 83% of bets are on the over. When sharps and squares align, there’s a potential for some serious line movement.
So … how have over/unders fared historically when the line moves a bundle?
According to Bet Labs, there have been about 350 games since 2005 in which the total has climbed at least five points from open to close, including 20 already this season.
Even with all the line movement, overs have hit at a 55.6% rate, including a crazy 15-5 record this year. Those records are based on the closing lines, so obviously bettors who were able to grab the over early would have done even better.
Can this bad boy hit 220 or will buy back come in on the under? Only time will tell …