Moore’s NBA Betting Angles, Picks: Monday’s Hornets vs. Hawks Over/Under Is Bonkers
Brock Williams-Smith/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Vince Carter (15) and Trae Young (11) of the Atlanta Hawks.
- With only three games on Monday's NBA schedule, one might think it would be hard to find some betting value.
- Matt Moore gives his betting angles for all three matchups including how he's betting the over/under in Hornets-Hawks.
- See his breakdown and betting picks on those games below.
Here are some betting angles for Monday’s three NBA games based on matchups and trends.
HORNETS AT HAWKS
- Spread: Hawks -4
- Over/Under: 223.5
- Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
THE ANGLE: What in God’s name is this total?
In the nine games where the Hawks have been home favorites this season, they’re 4-4-1 against the spread, but what I’m more focused on is the point totals. They allow 117 points per game and score 117 points per game.
In all Hawks home games, the totals average 229 against a 228 average total line.
Charlotte is also 12-8 straight up in games vs. bottom-10 defenses this season — something to consider for the moneyline. But in those games, they average 111 points per 100 possessions and 113 over the past two weeks. The Hornets offense is bad, don’t get me wrong. But even if you go that direction, the Hawks may put up 124 on their own, meaning Charlotte has to break 100 against the Hawks’ defense.
PJ Washington and John Collins might as well be the Spider-Man meme in terms of being able to score off the roll and being unable to defend anyone. They have shooters on both sides, and they have guards in Trae Young and Devonte’ Graham who can score off the dribble.
Love the over.
THE PLAY: Over 223.5
RAPTORS AT JAZZ
- Spread: Jazz -4.5
- Over/Under: 224
- Time: 9 p.m. ET
THE ANGLE: Fred VanVleet is the key
VanVleet is one of the best players on this team, but he’s also crucial for their weaknesses. The Raptors rank 17th in halfcourt offense this season. VanVleet is one of the leaders in the league, top-20, in made 3’s and assists. Without him, their offense just isn’t the same. It’s a lot of pushing pace, which is going to struggle vs. Utah, on a back-to-back, in altitude.
This game isn’t altogether different from the Raptors’ game vs. the Nuggets a week ago that they lost. The Raptors are 6-9 ATS without VanVleet this season and 3-5 on the road.
Utah went through their nadir and has played better as of late. They don’t blow you away, but the Raptors also aren’t amazing anyone by thriving with injuries like they were two months ago.
THE PLAY: Jazz -4.5
BUCKS AT NUGGETS
- Spread: Nuggets -5.5
- Over/Under: 222.5
- Time: 9 p.m. ET
THE ANGLE: I wanted to bet the hell out of Denver … then Giannis got injured
The Nuggets get up for big games and let down at any chance. That’s who they’ve been all year. They lost to the Cavaliers and Warriors (without Curry, Green, and Thompson, at home) inside of a week. It was last week!
Now, the Bucks are in their worst stretch and it’s been going on for a while. They beat the Raptors for their last big win, and then lost to Charlotte and Miami, got past Indiana, lost to the Lakers and then lost Sunday night vs. the Suns in a blowout without Giannis.
These two teams are in their worst stretches of the season. Milwaukee is still 7-2 on the second night of a back to back ATS this season. They are still 5-2 ATS this season without Giannis. They are still a really good team.
So what we’re really doing here is we’re betting either on the fully-healthy Nuggets to snap out of their funk in an advantageous spot, or the Bucks to do what they’ve done all year and snap out of their funk.
I trust the Bucks more.
THE PLAY: Bucks +5.5